Linden,
I am not sure, but will research it tonight. I think the only way that a stock will not drop when the size of the float goes up 3 or 4 X in one day is if the shares are in very strong hands or they release major news. If they release major news it will just delay the drop. I guess we can get a feel as to if the shares are in strong hands by checking how scattered the shares are and if they are owned by officers or outside investors.
A quick look at vign (real quick so don't hold me to this) is that 4 different venture capital groups hold 9.5 million shares. These are the shares that are most likly to hit the market fast when the lockup ends.
> Shares Beneficially Shares Beneficially Owned Before Number of Owned After the Offering Shares the Offering (1) Name and Address of ------------------- Being ------------------- Beneficial Owner Number Percent Offered Number Percent ------------------- ---------- -------- --------- ---------- -------- <S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> Funds affiliated with Austin Ventures(2) ................ 4,195,768 18.54% -- 4,195,768 15.94% 114 West Seventh Street 1300 Norwood Tower Austin, TX 78701 Sigma Entities(3) ........... 2,481,827 10.96 -- 2,481,827 9.43 2884 Sand Hill Road, Suite 121 Menlo Park, CA 94025 CNET, Inc. .................. 2,315,467 10.23 -- 2,315,467 8.80 150 Chestnut Street San Francisco, CA 94111 Adobe Ventures II, L.P. ..... 1,115,965 4.93 -- 1,115,965 4.24 One Bush Street San Francisco, CA 94104 Charles River Entities(4).... 1,767,905 7.81 -- 1,767,905 6.72 1000 Winter Street, Suite 3300 Waltham, MA 02154 Gregory A. Peters(5)......... 1,187,162 4.99 -- 1,187,162 4.32 Ross B. Garber(6)............ 1,606,431 7.10 160,000 1,446,431 5.50 Neil Webber(7)............... 1,623,160 7.16 160,000 1,463,160 5.55 Sherry A. Atherton........... 210,528 * -- 210,528 * Pany Christoforou(8)......... 177,071 * -- 177,071 * William R. Daniel(9)......... 177,071 * -- 177,071 * Bradley V. Husick............ 234,494 1.04 -- 234,494 * Peter T. Klante.............. 206,790 * -- 206,790 * Jack F. Lynch................ 189,321 * -- 189,321 * Philip C. Powers(10)......... 177,071 * -- 177,071 * Michael J. Vollman(11)....... 384,720 1.69 -- 384,720 1.46 Robert E. Davoli(3).......... 2,531,021 11.16 -- 2,531,021 9.60 Steven G. Papermaster(12).... 49,186 * -- 49,186 * John D. Thornton(2).......... 4,244,954 18.71 -- 4,244,954 16.10 All directors and executive officers as a group (13 persons)(13)............ 12,998,980 57.06% 320,000 12,678,980 47.91% |