Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (23220)	8/17/1999 7:42:00 PM
From: clochard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Why should it be bullish if a specialist loads up? They can always sell at the best price since everyone has to go through them to buy.

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (23220)	8/17/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Gary, the Wisdom is that when the vix is low there is complacency in the market (lack of consideration of downside) This tells me that the mood of the market which has swung in large extremes lately is swinging back to the other extreme. >>>>>BB, this market gauge has shown the specialists have been net long for weeks now. The smart money was long in this market, at least on the NYSE stocks. <<<< anybody that has been net long for more than a week has been wrong, i have never gleaned any tradeble information from that indicator. bb

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (23220)	8/17/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Gary, another way of looking at the specialist and members net long position is that they now have a lot of inventory which probably is in the process of being distributed during the current rally. these guys can be as wrong as anyone....note that they shorted the first and biggest leg of the rally from the october low only to go long as the first small correction was approaching. after all the specialists are supposed to ensure an 'orderly market', meaning they have to buy if there are sell side imbalances and vice versa. i'm sure that helps to distort the picture somewhat and the chart reveals that they catch important turning points sometimes and sometimes they don't. in fact the chart is extremely erratic and i have doubts about it's predictive value. i do believe however that the next dip should be bought, based on current evidence. btw, the biggest buyers of index puts in the latest correction were clearly institutions - and the put/call ratios reached extremes that suggested either an intermediate term bottom was near or a crash. since a crash is a highly improbable event we got a bottom. btw, do you know perhaps of a site that provides a less cramped chart of the specialist and member positions? the one on market gauge is straining the eyes... regards, hb