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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (3247)	8/18/1999 7:40:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

I think we will need some humor during tomorrow's session ... I thought AMAT did an awful job describing the environment and addressing the concerns of the 'HOLes' (i.e., Herd of Lemmings ... errrr, the analyst community ... sounds so i-Village/Geocities!). And ... unfortunately, this probably will not bode well for LRCX ... even though you can easily and rationally argue that LRCX is in a completely different situation ... with plenty of market share opportunities due to self-inflicted mis-steps and product cycles ... and they are much less reliant on industry growth as a whole to achieve the company targets and the expectations that The Street has for them. If I were a genius, I would have sold all my stock yesterday at $57. This would have yielded me a profit of roughly $44 per share. Unfortunately, with estimated taxes coming up on September 15th ... I also pay taxes. On this gain, my tax treatment would be most foul. Between the State and Federal, I will effectively keep about 55% of my gain. So, on an after tax basis, had I sold yesterday at $57, my net effective selling price would have been $37.20 -- a great gain ... almost a triple. In the end, however, selling LRCX at $37.20 does not seem like an intuitive thing to do given: 1) their operating leverage; 2) the ability for them to grow significantly more quickly than the market; 3) the demand/supply conditions in the semiconductor arena; 4) the still-restrained spending position of many IC manufacturers; and 5) the myriad of company-specific opportunities (e.g., Exelan and Teres ... to name two). Rhetorical question for the thread: Would you still consider me a genius had I sold my LRCX at $37.20 yesterday? --Duker