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To: Lucretius who wrote (56862)	8/17/1999 8:16:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

You want a fairy tale? Here goes: The two big crashes of this century, 1929 and 1987, both happened 55 calendar days after the peak in prices was recorded. The S&P 500 and the Dow saw their highs this year on July 19. Counting 55 days forward brings us to September 9, 1999, or 9/9/99. That's remarkable, because 9/9/99 is a very big Y2K date (9999 being some sort of default code in COBOL, or whatnot). Tom

To: Lucretius who wrote (56862)	8/17/1999 8:30:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Luc, you're right about de Beers and the bond yield...the correlation is amazing. and sure enough Tobin's Q-Ratio shows that hard assets are way overdue for a period of outperformance and paper assets for underperformance which would support your theory that gold should become the asset of choice in case of a meltdown in stocks. but i repeat that i don't believe that two rate hikes will stop the bubble from expanding further...the scenario you have outlined seems very unlikely to me at this point. BUT: a turning point must be drawing near, as mutual fund inflows are declining compared to recent years and foreign money flows are starting to reverse. unfortunately all the data pointing out the extremes that have been reached and/or surpassed mania-wise are completely useless for timing the turning point. it could be just as likely tomorrow or in 1, 2 or 3 years hence. btw, what do you think about the fact that members and specialists are net long and have been net buyers for 5 weeks in a row? normally this indicates a pretty decent intermediate term rally is in the offing as far as i know. i have discussed it on the MDA thread and offered my rather under-informed opinion on the phenomenon, so what do you think?