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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Catcher who wrote (28310)	8/17/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Teflon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Well, Catcher, I can't say I haven't had similar thoughts run through my mind on several occasions over the years. Thank God I have held out this long, though! First off, there are certainly other stocks out there that probably offer more upside potential in terms of growth rate than MSFT. To state otherwise would be foolish. What MSFT has always provided me, however, was the unique combination of growth on the upside, and protection on the downside due to its incredibly efficient business model. Do I expect that this will come to an end since linux is gaining ground in some select server markets? I DON'T THINK SO. Does that mean I don't expect MSFT to face some stiff Market challenges and be forced to compete more than it has probably ever competed in its relatively brief young history? Again, I don't think so. Why then stay in MSFT vs other stocks? I'll get there in a second. Catcher, I certainly suggest that MSFT be part of everyone's portfolio. MSFT could (should) certainly be an integral part of your portfolio, but diversify is the name of the game here. Especially when your kids education is partially on the line. Personally, I would stay away from the AOLs of the world. You don't need to ride that rollercoaster. Try and find companies that offer the same type investment characteristics that MSFT has afforded you over the years. QCOM is certainly one of those issues. Other companies like GMST are also potential candidates (take a moment to go read the last few months of posts on the GMST Thread). I am not getting paid for this recommendation, BTW, I am simply suggesting ideas that I have personally found valuable. LU, INTC, EMC, GE, CSCO are other candidates for this short but valuable list. Back to MSFT. Realize for a second that MSFT's future is probably more diverse in the types of potential opportunities it faces than probably at any time in the Company's history. And MSFT's management team (especially with Ballmer at the helm) is top notch, second to none. So I certainly think the future in Redmond is very bright, yet involves an element of uncertainty that many MSFT shareholders are not used to. And that may be why the stock has consolidated at these levels for such a lengthy period of time. If we, the faithful, are having conversations about diversification, you can bet your last penny that the majority of the Market is having similar thoughts. In short, I am keeping my holdings in tact, and on occasion, I add to them when the bargain presents itself (as it did the other day). But I have also not lost focus of the value in diversifying my holdings, and the majority of my new investments are outside of MSFT for this reason. Mind you, I have never sold a single share of MSFT that I have purchased over the years. If this linux attention helps the DOJ case for MSFT, then I am more than willing to live through this period. And I am certainly capable of waiting out MSFT's new ventures into the settop O/S, handheld devices and other new markets that their attacking. Personally, I think the story has more potential than ever, it just has more risk associated with it than ever before as well. And for this reason, we will be forced to address these concerns on a more regular basis than we probably have in recent history. Just my opinions as usual. Teflon

To: Catcher who wrote (28310)	8/17/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

Cather, In addition to my last post to Teflon on what i think about MSFT as a stock holding---Notice that volume is very heavy on this stock. We know there are always a lot of insider sales on this company because these people have everything all in one company and need to diversify a bit. Considering how much is being held by some of the individual shareholders, one would expect this added selling pressure on the stock. I am taking the very heavy volume on MSFT as a great sign that it is poised for a move up with the market in the short term. However, once Windows2k publicity begins, it will outperform the market, IMHO. Going into January/February next year, one can expect to make a lot of money. BTW--Regarding when that article came out on Linux/Windows2k. The place to find out would be IDC. My guess is that they released and news.com printed it later. It may depend upon how it is reported tomorrow----sometimes there can be a very short term drop caused by short sellers who think the news has not hit all the wires yet. I don't expect it to be a factor at all tomorrow because it was not significant. Just my guess.