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To: Greg Ford who wrote (7207)8/18/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: goldsheet  Respond to of 81205
 
> The focus in the industry is on profitability as opposed to
> production growth.

Being capital intensive (high non-cash depreciation costs), the most important factor is cash flow. Miners will keep producing all the way down to the cash cost of production to maintain positive cash flow and pay the interest on the debt. Production remains high despite negative EPS, because cash flow is still positive.

> you can certainly make a case for lower production

Yes, but the article suggested 20-40%, which is absurd. As gold dropped from $400 in 1995 to current levels ($US260), mine production has been 95:2250mt 96:2328 97:2472 98:2529. I know there is a time-lag, but I'm still waiting for primary mine production to stop hitting new record levels. It may drop short-term (2450 for 1999?) and 10% long-term ( 2150-to-2250mt was a nice flat level form 1989-to-1995), but 20-40% is nuts !!!

In 1980 production was 1200mt, so we are discussing minor percentages when primary mine production is up over 100% in the last two decades.
goldsheet.simplenet.com


Bob Johnson
goldsheet.simplenet.com