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Strategies & Market Trends : Due Diligence - How to Investigate a Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Other Analyst who wrote (684)	8/18/1999 7:19:00 PM
From: Phil(bullrider)	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 752

TOA, >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> EXCUSE THE ALL CAPS. I'M NOT REALLY YELLING HERE. JUST CUT AND PASTED YOUR POST INTO MY WINDOW SO I COULD REACT TO YOUR MESSAGE AND NEEDED A WAY TO DISTINGUISH. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> You can distinguish this way: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> techstocks.com How do I make my post text bold/italic/hyperlinked? The only HTML tags that we allow in the discussion forums are bold and italic. To bold or italicize your text, just add the following tags to your text: your text here for bold your text here for italic To add a hyperlink (URL) to another site in your post, just type the URL with http:// preceding it, and it will automatically show up as a hyperlink in your post. Example: talk.techstocks.com >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Have fun, Phil

To: The Other Analyst who wrote (684)	8/19/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 752

TOA Catalyst: I think the term "catalyst" is best reserved for something more specific than any change that moves a stock up or down. To me it implies an event that will trigger recognition of an underlying reality. Agreed. Certainly anything that moves the stock wouldn't be a catalyst since the overall market movement accounts for a big chunk of movement of most stocks [beta]. The 'recognition of an underlying reality' would amount to uncovering or increasing focus on some aspect of the stock or business, but 'reality' may be open to question. Sometimes the recognized 'reality' isn't that real...which brings us to Entremed. I would consider the announcement of favorable mouse trials to be a catalyst and it sure as Hell moved the stock, but the 'reality' of an approval was clearly overestimated by the market. Recognition of that overestimation was catalysed by subsequent events. The investor's job is to figure out not only the underlying reality of the business [which can only be approximated], but also probablility of potential event catalysts that might cause perception to change and favor the investors bet. I'm reluctant to short technology businesses where, despite fair degree of certainty that the business will wilt and die, the potential for an announcement catalyst that could trigger animal spirits in other investors despite not being 'realistic' would cause the stock to move against me bigtime. Comments? Any suggestions for other possible catalysts? bob