To: Greg Hull who wrote (23802 ) 8/18/1999 6:42:00 PM From: Patrick Sharkey Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
I would have expected the author of the Gorilla Game would have identified Ancor as a competitor as well. Perhaps he is biased as well because of the relationship. If people such as Mr. Johnson truly could predict the gorillas each time, RS would have a 500% return each year, but they can't and they don't Also, I probably would have had more respect for the opinion of the Gorilla Game author, based upon all that I had heard, had I not read the book. I thought that the book was fundamentally correct, but offered not special insight into how precisely to identify find the tornado -- and how to make sure that others see it too, but only after you are in at a lower price. In addition, it is quite premature to identify anyone as a gorilla in fibre channel switching until we find out which OEMs are going to acquire and hold the market share. We also don't know which of these OEMs are dual-sourcing -- Adam Rapport keeps telling us in code that SUN is doing so, and when I have called IR and Clarion engineering, through IR, late on two separate afternoons (and then posted the results of the information received from Clarion's IR department), I heard both times that both switches (Ancor and Brocade) were excellent, that installations with both were going on, and that both would be supported. While that doesn't square with the surface of the Clarion OEM, I believe what I was told by IR/engineering at Clarion. On the other hand, I am disappointed in the market's reaction to the Ancor secondary offering. I interpret the price decline as indicating a moderate reception both as to price and prospects. That being said, I also believe that the pricing will be below today's closing so that the underwriters/their purchasers will be able to take a quick profit not matter what happens otherwise to the stock price. All that being said, we probably are at fair value, when considering prospects against what remains to be proven for both Ancor and Brocade, i.e., that there will be the $3 billion switching market predicted by those market analysts that purport to know. We need more OEMs, and we need what we have to start shipping and penetrating the market so that there will be an Ancor gorilla out there. Pat