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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23341)8/18/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: Kevin Batey  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Matthew,

Took a look at your site, and congrats on your trade, but I'll be darned if I can make heads or tales of how to use your charts. Could you give a little more detail as to how you drew your conclusion about the 17-1 odds of a reversal today? TIA



To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23341)8/18/1999 9:47:00 PM
From: HairBall  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Matthew L. Jones: Thanks for sharing your results. Many on this thread will appreciate you work. Donald Sew uses statistical probabilities in most of his work. And, I am sure the Captain who host the QQQ thread will find your work useful as well.

Thanks again...

Regards,
LG



To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23341)8/18/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: stockycd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Matthew,

I'm having a hard time figuring out how you get a 17:1 chance of a downturn (from your tables).

We could say that we are in the 23rd day of an intermediate bearish trend and that the probability of a reversal is about 97%.

OR

We could say we are in the 6th day of a bullish trend and the probability of reversal down would be about 22%.

Could you explaind how you got the 17:1 odds?

I'm still studying the tables. TIA.
Chris


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