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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (4958)	8/19/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Can you help me identify the basis of some our assumptions on Q's fy'00 earnings? Well, last's quarters "pro forma" was 86, and that was up 45% from the previous quarter. We expect a gorilla to grow at 50% a year at least, and it could do 100%. Lets start with top end, a continuation of 45% per quarter. That gives us 86 times 145%= 1.25 next quarter, then 1.81, then 2.62, then 380, for a total of 9.48. 1/2 of that, 22.5% growth per quarter, gives us 86 times 122.5%= 1.05 next quarter, then 1.29, then 1.58, then 1.93, for a total of 5.85. SI is showing a trailing PE of 147.4, and a market cap of 26.3 billion. If that continued, that would give us, a year from now, a stock price, On 9.48 earnings, 147.4 PE times 9.48 earnings = 1397.35 price, with a market cap of 218 Billion. On 5.85 earnings, 147.4PE times 5.85 earnings = 862.29price, with a market cap of 134.5 Billion If the trailing PE slowed down to say, the Cisco level of around 80, that would give us, a year from now, a stock price, On 9.48 earnings, 80PE times 9.48 earnings = 758 price, with a market cap of 118.27 Billion. On 5.85 earnings, 80PE times 5.85 earnings = 468 price, with a market cap of 73 Billion. I did this exercise to show my figures in case of error, and to give anybody who does not know how to do this exercise, a layout of it. My guess on this? The bottom number, a 468 price a year from now.