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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zoltan! who wrote (9227)	8/19/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Curtis E. Bemis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Morning-- I just got passed an article written by Mike Cammarata who authors the Hoofbeat subscription newsletter. He claims--".. Lucent is having >extreme problems in meeting production schedules and shipment dates on their >old line telephony products. We are talking serious unit backlog measured in >the thousands. Apparently that factory was shut down for several weeks for a >SAP implementation along with Order Flow this and that. Things have not >returned to normal and they continue to fall behind. Anecdotal evidence of >large customers having concrete 'set-in-stone' shipment and installation >dates have had to contact all their other vendors to postpone those >installations into the unknown future." Anybody know anything about this ??

To: Zoltan! who wrote (9227)	8/19/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

z, LU and CSCO are not the same company. What may not be positive for CSCO is a positive for LU. The market coup is simply the addition of the INS business to LU. LU plans to grow one of the largest service/support organizations in the world. In terms of overpayment, the INSS is projected to grow at 42% annually for the next 5 years and is growing earnings at or above that pace. A growth rate equal to half of this last year puts the deal at 8.3 times next years revenues and around 6 times the following years'. Like CSCO's, earnings and revenues are growing every quarter. (they must have learned the smoothing technique from CSCO) Given that, the price may seem steep now but will seem to be a bargain in a year. The strong relationships that INS has with both the enterprise and telco customers is very important for LU going forward. Getting the inside scoop on CSCO, CSCO technology and CSCO business practices is also a nice addition to the deal. One thing sticks out from the CSCO CC. If Chambers was so sure that INS was unimportant to CSCO, he would not have spent so much time saying just that. It sounded very much like a child saying "i didn't want it anyway" after his/her parent said you can't have it. (and yes Z, I know that he claims to have said he didn't want it.) On the subject of expense, the numbers in the INS deal are much more favorable to the bottom line than the 2 billion dollar addition of Geotel, both revenue and earnings-wise. I do believe that there were assessments on the deal with INS last week (and i will take a look) that said a lot of this in more detail (with the exception of the Geotel deal). Brian