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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (32110)	8/19/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, IMHO the issue is not turns orders...it is the overall rate of new order growth. Here's my previous post: This is the disappointment "New orders for the third fiscal quarter of 1999 reached a record $1.46 billion, an increase of 5 percent from $1.39 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 1999." Only a 20% growth rate annualized and only $30 million more than shipments of $1.43 billion (book to bill of 1.02). Sequential order growth of only 5% is too low for a company carrying AMAT's multiple. Whether this is a blip or not remains to be seen. In the meantime, nervous money is going elsewhere.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (32110)	8/19/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, re >explain the orders backlog shortfall to me.< I won't play WS's game. :) I don't remember this kind of thing being an issue before. I think WS just needed an excuse to drive the stock down, and this is as good as any. Regards Gottfried

To: Ian@SI who wrote (32110)	8/19/1999 12:31:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian: Re: "What am I missing?" Nothing except it was AMAT's turn for profit taking in this correction and the perceived order shortfall that wasn't provided an excuse. AMAT had held up well in this correcting market up until earnings and in a different environment it would not have been hit so hard. Also, the guidance gave some the shakes in an already shaky market. I see a bottom at $63 and I expect a week from now AMAT will be $70. AMAT will not make a new high without a catalyst short term IMO as the market has sentenced it to a trading range. I see a top at $75. BTB is the only thing on the horizon with potential for new highs but I don't think it will do much. Regardless, this stock will perform if Greenspan does his job in a responsible fashion and the BTB does not drop off a cliff <g>.