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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (7901)	8/19/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

One bear, Roger on my site, says that the Bear started in 1997 (look at your small cap mutual funds) and the "nifty 50 type" divergence has been in the stocks like CSCO, MSFT, etc. that have been carrying the there indexes way, way ahead of the rest of the market. Interesting point and he could be right. but.... Then I just look at some Data like this chart bigcharts.com bigcharts.com 216.32.224.100 and from this chart it sure looks like the DJIA leads the S&P500 on bull runs and could be reinforcement to Ralph Acampora's claim that we have just started the second bull market after we had a 6 month bear market. I do remember several yrs ago hearing that when bull markets peak out we start to see some extreme volatility. We have this is some individual stocks, but this is always the case and gives reason for the 4% rule. Rukeyser on WSW showed a volatitily chart vs time and we are not very volatile this yr. which says, at least for that indicator, that we have not hit a bull market top....yet. Good to pay attention to all the indicators and I am at a well reduced asset allocation from my 97% level in Sept/Oct 1998, but I still see reason apleanty to agree with Bob's staying fully invested.