Ladies and Gentlemen:
I'm pleased to report the results of the fourth period of the Loral price prediction
pool. Most of you will recall we started this pool in April to commemorate the first
anniversary of our April 21, 1998 all time high. 66 entries were submitted
predicting the high/low/close for the one year period to end April 21, 2000. Winner will
be the entry with the lowest sum of the absolute value of error in each of the h/l/c
predicts. As of 8/21, our h/l/c is 22.875/16.125/18.375
Overall, we were down in the latest month 1.75 or 8.7%, making no new contest high or low. Loral's lackluster price performance during the period seemed due to general investor uneasiness with technology stocks, exacerbated perhaps by the unfolding disaster at Iridium and nagging uncertainties regarding the G* roll-out plan and schedule. The month featured an exceptional amount of news for Loral on the business front, highlighted by two successful launches for G*, readying the constellation for start of service, the anounced remanifesting of T7 on Ariane, a better than consensus earnings report and an important agreement with Apstar to secure transponder space over the Pacific region, effectively replacing the lost-in-launch-accident Orion 3.
During the last month Loral outperformed peers GMH (-12%), SPOT (-10%) and IRID(Q) (-56% before the trading halt) but lagged major indices Dow (+0.9%) and NASDAQ (-4.1%.) Loral also underperformed relative to GSTRF(-5.6%) for the second consecutive month. Since the contest start, Loral's 4.6% gain
bested GMH(-2%) and IRID(Q) (-84%), but lagged SPOT (+24%) and GSTRF (+48%), the DOW (+4.9%), and NASDAQ (+6.4%). There were no changes in the relative contest standings. Mr. Proofsheet remains in first place and a close of below 17 or above 26 ¾ is required to change that.
We are now 1/3 of the way through the contest and extrapolating our stock price action during this period either arithmetically or geometrically, results in similar results of about 25/16.125/20, which would result in no significant change to the standings below (place, entrant/entry, score):
1, Mr. Proofsheet 25/14/23, 8.88
2, Bernard Levy 24/9/20, 9.88
3, BrianW 32/15/19, 10.88
4, SofLD 20.75/10/10.75, 15.88
5, crawlingbug 33/16/28, 19.88
6, Dandreaja 35/16/26, 19.88
7, mmeggs 34/16/30, 22.88
8, GH 38/15/28, 25.88
9, Valueman 35/16/33, 26.88
10, ccryder 35,15,32, 26.88
11, mtnlion 38/15/31, 28.88
12, rhkgt 37/16/35 , 30.88
13, lorlurker 38/16/34, 30.88
14, Still Crazy 88 38/16/35, 31.88
15, Mr. Adrenaline 39/17/39, 37.63
16, NorthForce 39/10/34, 37.88
17, dabenks 41/15/37, 37.88
18, MH 41/16/39, 38.88
19, brianh 40/13/40, 41.88
20, Coff drop 48/15.5/36, 43.38
21, Don Limb 44/15/40, 43.88
22, Moron_35 46/16.5/40, 45.13
23, Gremlin 43/17/43, 45.63
24, Wlong41 46/16/42, 46.88
25, Blockhead3 49.9/16.9/38.1, 47.50
26, VASCARman 48/16/42, 48.88
27, Corgini: 46/14.5/43, 49.38
28, jopowa 45/17/45, 49.63
29, Djane 49/13.5/42, 52.38
30, six sigma enigma 48/13/45, 54.88
31, Mick 51/15/44, 54.88
32, epona 00 51/16/45, 54.88
33, RocketScientist: 52/16/44, 54.88
34, Peter Hudson 48/17/48, 55.63
35, LORWORKER: 56.25/14.75/41.3, 57.69
36, Dwight Martin 50/15/48, 57.88
37, Robert. G. Brown, 52/16/48, 58.88
38, Nancy Haft 52/15.75/48, 59.13
39, SnowShoe 60/15/40, 59.88
40, KThiel: 52/14.5/49, 61.38
41, Steven Rachbach 56/15/48, 63.88
42, Jim Parkinson, 60/16/45, 63.88
43, Dragonfly 55/16.5/50, 64.13
44, Chart 2000 55/13/50, 66.88
45, Halpcar2 56/16/52, 66.88
46, Jim Fleming 56/17/52, 67.63
47, Tim A 56/15/52, 67.88
48, JeffVayda: 60/14/48, 68.88
49, Thomas 63/16.25/48.5, 70.38
50, Safety Agent Man59/16/53., 70.88
51, CrisisWhatCrisis 68/14/49, 77.88
52, ReaganDuBose 60/17/60, 79.63
53, LoralLong:66/15/55, 80.88
54, BKPSY 66/16/63, 87.88
55, AR2BW 65/17/65, 89.63
56, Tastychap 69/16.9/65, 93.56
57, ltfequities 72/ 17/65, 96.63
58, GeneralHQ 73/16.5/ 65 , 97.13
59, Chessen29 76/17 /72, 107.63
60, ChuckKieger 84/18/77, 121.63
61, loree 20 120/20/40, 122.63
62, mstudm 98/13.75/78, 137.13
63, Noel de Leon 110/16/95, 163.88
64, Tahoetech 127/17/80, 166.63
65, E Haiken 125/15/115, 199.88
66, roskie 186/16/175, 319.88
Thanks again to everyone for playing and good luck to all (especially roskie!). I'll report
back next month, or earlier if stock price movement warrants.
YO&HS
RS
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