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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (57416)	8/19/1999 5:53:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

<<I am making this shit up as I go along, so feel free to shoot holes in it.>> Funny you should mention that. Check this guy's profile! You will ROTFLYAO! -g- exchange2000.com

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (57416)	8/19/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

if he doesn't raise rates, I would interpret this as he sees the market is in a much more precarious position than we do. In other words, a rate hike would be bullish and no action would be bearish (as the fed sees things Sound logic Tom. (that being the problem)

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (57416)	8/19/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

well...that's why i said, no action would probably tank the bond market and stocks would probably get an initial boost but have second thoughts later. however, it may all depend on the spin that's delivered along with the decision: if it's along the lines of "price pressures do not yet warrant a hike, but we'll keep our eyes peeled, bla bla bla" we'll get a rally for sure. later on the worrying about october will start, but the bulls will at first take it as 'we told you one hike would be all she wrote' and react in tried and true fashion, by buying hand over fist whatever is most overvalued or has no chance of ever making a profit. but inevitably questions will be asked, since everyone seems to expect a hike now. btw, the state of the markets, measured purely from a psychological point of view is probably one of complacency rather than precariousness. if one watches the stock market very closely day in day out the impression that one primarily gets is that the only fear there is is the fear of missing the next run-up. the urgency of the bear market rallies in the nutz stocks attests to that, and they are not the only sector afflicted with this. apparently it is now considered perfectly normal for companies' market caps to fluctuate by billions of dollars in a matter of days. let me assure you, it is NOT normal. rather we tend to accept the most recent span of experience as the state of 'normalcy' even though it is not. if i had told you in 1990 say, that there would be a company with $30mio in revenues and $34mio in losses, the market cap of which would grow from $ 9BILLION to $ 11bn in a span of three trading days, you wouldn't have believed me (that would be JNPR in case you wondered). and yet, it is a perfectly 'normal' everyday occurrence now. we have all become so inundated with absurd price movements that we don't even notice anymore how crazy it all has become. that's complacency at it's finest. there seems to be less of that in the bond markets though, otherwise spreads wouldn't be where they are. the word 'risk' hasn't yet taken leave from the vocabulary of bond traders, whereas when you listen to stock market analysts falling over each other in an orgy of target price raises you have to ask yourself what the hell is wrong with these people. sorry for ranting so much....