Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bridge Player who wrote (750)	8/19/1999 8:37:00 PM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 3350

>>You would think that any student of market history and the history of bubbles would not be defending Juniper and its ilk in this market. I am stating facts about the company and about supply and demand, not defending initial purchases of Juniper at current levels. There is plenty of market history on supply and demand. All I know is that it is possible that this stock goes higher. If Janus likes this company, they might very well just have received 80-100,000 shares on the offering (at $34) and have been buying 150k a week ever since and maybe they now have 800k at an average cost of $145, despite some purchases in the high $100's or low $200's. Maybe Putnam and Fidelity have done something similar. That would be 2.4mm of the 4.8mm shares spoken for and they don't even have a position that is really all that big. Moreover they already have a 40% return from their average cost so they are liking this investment and know that if Juniper executes, it could be another big market cap telecom company. $10b is high but its only moderately above INKT and many others with much smaller opportunities. Now you also have X shares sold short by a bunch of people who don't understand this math. Now you get the daytraders pouring on. No sellers + incremental buying + shorts covering = higher price. It is possible. I don't have my net worth in this company, its one of many positions. If it gets cut in half I still know that the industry fundamentals couldn't be any better and Juniper is as blue-chip as IPO's get and the opportunity is enormous and I will only be down a few pts. 5% of technology companies create 95% of shareholder value. The JNPR valuation assumes Juniper stands a good chance of being one of the 5%. If it is, there is solid long-term upside from here. If not, its a great short. My price targets are now $400 or $4 depending entirely on Junipers execution. For now, I am leaning toward $400 but whichever way it goes, it won't break me if it goes down in flames. I am diversified into many of the companies that stand a chance of being in the 5%. One 5-bagger makes up for multiple bankruptcies.