Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : 2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: O. H. Rundell who wrote (373)	8/20/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: bearcub	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 662

this thread is uptight, yes? of course, lassie wasn't a bitch. but i was using the term in the scottish cultural sense of lassie and laddie because i was writing to flatsville for the second time. (rmember: there was a mock-politically correct tempestin a teapot furor over my use of girlie when affectionately addressing flatsville and chiding her for her ageism -in flatsville's a mere 1000 posts ago :) ] besides, does anyone know if the 'other' Lassie is y2k prepared? you know, plenty of dogfood/clean-water and film in the can for re-runs on slow rabbit in the thicket rescuing type days in 2000? by the way, someone asked me if i knew any website that teaches with pictures the proper way to butcher an elk, antelope, deer, sheep or even a stray calf or steer for printing out referencing post y2k?

To: O. H. Rundell who wrote (373)	8/20/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Respond to of 662

Ed Yardeni: "EYES WIDE SHUT" (August 10, 1999) Two years ago, when I started to research Y2K, I concluded that there was a 30% chance of a global recession in 2000 as a result of Y2K disruptions. I subsequently raised the odds to 70% about a year ago. I noted that I might lower my subjective probability by now if the news warranted such a reassessment. Unfortunately, as documented below, I remain at 70%. I realize that no other economist or investment strategist on Wall Street foresees a recession. The following table lists the five possible Y2K economic scenarios, along with my subjective probabilities for each of them. The overwhelming consensus view is that it will either be a non event or similar in effect to a two- to three-day natural disaster, like a major storm. I think it will be more like an "unnatural" man-made disaster. Nature's disasters are random and geographically localized events. Y2K is potentially a systemic, worldwide event ... I've been playing Hamlet with the scenarios in the table below in recent weeks. I've thought about reversing the probability weights for the mild six-month recession scenario and the severe 12-month one. In other words, I am leaning toward a slightly more optimistic stance on the severity of a recession. After all, the electricity and phone industries say they are ready to deliver their vital services, in the United States at least. However, as documented below, there remain several weak links in the Y2K chain. In my opinion, the two most likely causes of global recession are breakdowns in the global just-in-time manufacturing system and in the global oil industry. Indeed, Y2K could cause another energy crisis. So I am not changing my probability assessment for now. I'll revisit the matter in October ... ED YARDENI yardeni.com Cheryl 133 Days until 2000