To: KM who wrote (23829 ) 8/22/1999 3:24:00 PM From: Ocean_Joe Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 29386
Reply (Part I of II) to: "Will the Sun Finally Shine on Ancor Communications? By Herb Greenberg, Senior Columnist, 8/20/99 6:30 AM ET" A few days ago (8/20/99) the above article appeared on one of the many electronic newsletters "investors" read on the net. Trading that day ended with ANCR posting a 2.19 pt loss. It is safe to say the article precipitated some stock selling and some shorting. Oh, the "games people play:" Let's review the real "game" , play by play. The article suggests that Ancr stock was "zooming higher before investors ever [got] around to reading the [SUN OEM contract] fine print." That is incorrect. The SUN OEM contract, "fine print" and all, has been both posted and debated ad nauseam. One need only scroll through the Yahoo and SI posts starting in June to confirm. Indeed, the SUN OEM contract "fine print" has long ago been factored into ANCR's price by any investor doing due diligence (DD) firsthand, including the more than ten institutions and funds that now hold in excess of 15% of ANCR stock. The article suggests that ANCR is merely a "cash-starved" company. Obviously, the article was written before the recent secondary, where investors, mostly institutional, gave ANCR over $60 million dollars for stock. This is significant. It exposes just how shallow and incomplete the research behind the article is and/or exposes the blatant bias of the article. Again, the SUN OEM contract, now three months old (at least), is already factored into ANCR's price. We have not even mentioned much less discussed the more than eight other OEM contracts ANCR has signed, some of which are already shipping and booking revenues, such as MTIC. Shipping and booking revenues despite boilerplate OEM contract language stating the OEM is not required to do so. Again, shallow and incomplete research or blatant bias of the article. The article suggests that a past deficit was "especially staggering when [ANCR's] revenue this year, at best, is expected to be just $15 million." Au contraire, $15 million in revenues represents quite a turnaround. In the context of a growth stock, it is phenomenal - what was once only a plan is now becoming reality! It represents an ability to execute! Such execution on a business plan is exactly why ANCR has caught both the attention and the money (as in the $60+ million raised from the secondary two days ago!) of investors, funds, and institutions. Again, execution on a business plan is exactly why ANCR is on the move up. The "future" is arriving daily, just as ANCR had planned many months ago - execution. The article suggests that the SUN OEM contract news "caused Ancor's stock to almost immediately quadruple before settling to its current price of 28 1/2, giving it a market value of $720 million." That is patently incorrect. There were several OEM contracts announced during that "quadrupling", thus (again) demonstrating conclusively ANCR's execution on its business plan with a product well positioned in the explosive growth storage sector. Further, funds and institutions heavily accumulated in June, and it is safe to bet that the depth and reliability of their research and investment decisions far exceeds the depth and reliability of the article. The article quantifies the market size "Using figures supplied by International Data Corp., the company has been saying that the fibre-channel switch market could be worth $235 million in 1999, $558 million in 2000, $1.1 billion in 2001 and a whopping $1.7 billion by 2002." Fair enough, we agree. Explosive growth potential now confirmed by third party sources. The article states "Ancor isn't without competition. Brocade Communications Systems . . . privately held Vixel and Gadzoox Networks (ZOOX:Nasdaq), which recently went public, . . . (Both companies, by the way, only recently started selling switches.)Fair enough. We agree. Is any of that new? Is not all that long ago factored into ANCR's price? Does it not imply ANCR stock is the best bet going, not exorbitantly priced by virtue of IPO frenzy while also not exposed to a future stock price collapse liability that 99.9% of the IPO's convulse through when their lock-up period ends? This point can not be overstated in any objective assessment of the competition. ANCR has no such lockup expiration liability; on the contrary, as ANCR's competitors lock up periods expire, ANCR's revenue stream and ramp-up will be underway in-line with ANCR projections made months ago. If you were an investor (retail or fund or institution) seeking to benefit from the explosive growth of fibre channel sector, which is the safer and surer play? ANCR of course. (Some would say ANCR is the only play until after the lock-up expirations, at which time all should be re-evaluated.) This reply is getting long so Part II will continue from this point forward by subsequent post. Let me conclude this post by reminding all that the article stated nothing new that is not already factored into the stock price. The article stated nothing new, unless of course, you have not been properly introDDuced to a company called ANCR. Ocean Joe Again - Part II to follow later tonight. I'll address by separate post the questions on shorts and discuss the opportunistic "baiting of shorts" that several suggest is occurring.