To: Rarebird who wrote (39315 ) 8/20/1999 1:05:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116895
Did Summers Ditch Dollar? By Justin Lahart -- The Street.com N E W Y O R K, Aug. 20 — The Summers of our discontent? Hardly. But forgive the markets for reacting as if it's so. The hallmark of Robert Rubin's tenure as Treasury secretary was a strong-dollar policy. By departing from the dollar bashing of his predecessor, Lloyd Bentsen, Rubin drew foreign capital to the United States, and these funds have helped keep inflation in check. When Lawrence Summers took over the post in July, some concern for the dollar was raised. The former Harvard professor had, after all, toyed with the notion that a weaker greenback — by helping U.S. companies compete abroad and fend off imports at home — could be a good thing. The concerns seemed warranted in light of what's happened to the dollar since Summers took the Treasury reins in July. Since then, the dollar has lost 4 percent against the euro and a whopping 8 percent against the yen. Summers did decline recently to join the Bank of Japan in propping up the dollar. But, contrary to Tokyo press reports, this was not a sign that the United States was abandoning a strong dollar. And anyone who thinks the dollar's recent softness has much of anything to do with Summers doesn't get what the strong-dollar policy is all about. Intervention Can't Buck Tide “The United States has consistently had a policy of steering clear of the currency markets unless the market value appears to be extreme and going against fundamental indicators,” says James McCormick, currency strategist at J.P. Morgan. A strong-dollar stance is merely a commitment to policies that make the dollar strong — not a commitment to intervening on the dollar's behalf whenever it weakens. Intervening now would be ineffective, anyway, given global trends. With emerging markets regaining stability, European economies expanding and Japan putting its fiscal house in order, we are seeing a rebalancing of global capital. It's a powerful force in the markets, and not one worth betting against. “I don't think whether Rubin or anyone else was in control they could offset those flows,” says Bill Sullivan, chief money-market economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. “It would be like shoveling sand against the tide.” Yet it isn't entirely accurate to say that the dollar's turn of fortune had nothing to do with the changing of the guard at Treasury. For more than a year before he stepped down it was well known in the market that Rubin was tiring of Washington. With the world in a mess, however, he had to delay his departure. Rubin's resignation, then, was a sign that the economic crisis had passed, that the world was healing — the very forces that have taken the dollar lower. Copyright 1999 ABC News Internet Ventures -