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To: Dale Baker who wrote (9906)	8/20/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: JSB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

I just think that if the projection is off by 50% it still looks like 250% growth. Oil keeps going higher, we're heading into winter, and the Saudis need 26 bucks a barrel to break even and service their debt. I think this is a beginnig of a cycle in which case, FGI, GLBL and UFAB should do extremely well. I'm looking at NMGC on the heels of INTC's news.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (9906)	8/20/1999 9:31:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 118717

Dale, Good morning, I just bumped into your thread while doing a search on FGI and UFAB. Your comment: "How good is the projection if the demand for drilling platforms is weak? I don't know the industry but I would like to hear that from someone who does." I am afraid I cannot be considered an authority, but I will note a few points. It is a near consensus among those that do follow the industry that natural gas could be in relatively short supply this winter. It is my understanding that this will impact drilling in the Gulf of Mexico which will positively impact UFAB, FGI etc. So they have lagged, the more tightly the spring has been wound. Some on the SD thread are looking for "Boom 2000", and here is a post referencing the NG situation. Message 11015902 Edit, Slider wrote the above post while I was writing this one to you, I find it amusing he also mentioned the "coiled spring", though in reference to NG stocks. BTW, if you have the time, could you take a look at RRC and see what you think? Best Regards, Roebear

To: Dale Baker who wrote (9906)	8/20/1999 9:45:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 118717

Dale, One more time, further fuel for the fire. Note the bolded portion, this is a theory of mine that has not met with much support on the strictly drilling thread, but which I feel could shift more production to US domestic, as foreign suppliers more likely to have problems. In any case, now that its out, self fulfilling prophecy is enough to make it significant perhaps. To: kendall harmon (435 ) From: kathyh Friday, Aug 20 1999 8:28AM ET Reply # of 436 FOCUS-Oil forges above $21 to new 22-month highs Reuters Story - August 20, 1999 08:10 (updates with London prices, PVS SINGAPORE) By Andrew Mitchell LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices bolted to fresh highs above $21 a barrel on Friday as OPEC's determination to stick with deep output cuts kindled fears of a winter supply crunch as stocks of spare oil shrink. International benchmark Brent crude in London powered to a high of $21.11 on Friday -- its highest since October 1997 -- before slipping to $21.03 by 1130 GMT, a 13 cents rise over the day. The gains will further buoy OPEC ahead of its September 22 ministerial meeting. The group's success, with non-OPEC Mexico, in keeping up supply curbs agreed in March has hoisted prices from historic sub-$10 lows just six months ago. Still nursing their economies back to health after last year's slump, OPEC producers like Algeria, Iran and Libya have said September's meeting will not loosen supply limits, as global stockpiles of spare oil are still too high for comfort. Yet some analysts warn that the tight grip on supply will soon slash surplus stocks and could create a supply shortage in the peak northern hemisphere winter demand season. This has encouraged speculators to buy in anticipation of further price gains. "I think the funds are quite happy to stay long with the fourth quarter just round the corner," said one London dealer. Potential fallout from the Y2K computer bug could also cut into oil flows at the turn of the year, analysts add -- a fear that will increase buying pressure in the autumn and winter as consumers hoard precautionary supplies of heating oil. News that a tropical storm was drifting towards Mexican oil facilities reminded traders that the approaching Atlantic hurricane season could further disrupt oil supply in the Americas. Tropical storm Brent is currently heading westwards towards Veracruz state, home to one of Mexico's two main Gulf oil export terminals. It was forecast to make landfall in 48 to 72 hours, forecaster Weather Services Corp said on Friday. A huge fire at Turkey's biggest refinery that blazed since Tuesday's devastating earthquake has also forced it to cancel some shipments of refined products. The fire, at the Izmit plant, was finally brought under control on Friday. The latest gains have pushed price further above producers' declared $18-20 target range for Brent. OPEC's startling success in reviving prices has now shifted debate onto how long its supply cuts should stay in place. Some experts say that further price rises will only serve to unleash higher cost production outside OPEC ranks and ultimately cause the same sort of disastrous price collapse that afflicted OPEC economies last year. Prices in dollars a barrel: Aug 20 Aug 19 (1130 GMT) (close) IPE Oct Brent 21.03 20.90 NYMEX Oct light crude 22.06 21.97 Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited