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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edwarda who wrote (8143)	8/20/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Respond to of 9818

Great post!!

To: Edwarda who wrote (8143)	8/20/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Edwarda, <Even Ed Yardeni, whom I've known for years, has expressed far less concern than he did previously.> Guess you haven't talked to him lately. Ed Yardeni: "EYES WIDE SHUT" (August 10, 1999) Two years ago, when I started to research Y2K, I concluded that there was a 30% chance of a global recession in 2000 as a result of Y2K disruptions. I subsequently raised the odds to 70% about a year ago. I noted that I might lower my subjective probability by now if the news warranted such a reassessment. Unfortunately, as documented below, I remain at 70%. I realize that no other economist or investment strategist on Wall Street foresees a recession. The following table lists the five possible Y2K economic scenarios, along with my subjective probabilities for each of them. The overwhelming consensus view is that it will either be a non event or similar in effect to a two- to three-day natural disaster, like a major storm. I think it will be more like an "unnatural" man-made disaster. Nature's disasters are random and geographically localized events. Y2K is potentially a systemic, worldwide event ... I've been playing Hamlet with the scenarios in the table below in recent weeks. I've thought about reversing the probability weights for the mild six-month recession scenario and the severe 12-month one. In other words, I am leaning toward a slightly more optimistic stance on the severity of a recession. After all, the electricity and phone industries say they are ready to deliver their vital services, in the United States at least. However, as documented below, there remain several weak links in the Y2K chain. In my opinion, the two most likely causes of global recession are breakdowns in the global just-in-time manufacturing system and in the global oil industry. Indeed, Y2K could cause another energy crisis. So I am not changing my probability assessment for now. I'll revisit the matter in October ... ED YARDENI yardeni.com Testy Cheryl <ggg>

To: Edwarda who wrote (8143)	8/20/1999 5:04:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Paper machines, for example, are loaded with embedded systems that could care less about what year it happens to be. Funny... I was discussing this very topic with a manufacturing engineer from S. Africa who was visiting here in DC. I met him at one of my favorite hang-outs in the city (CK knows the place) the other night and he stated straight out that his machinery had been inspected and no deficiencies detected. As an aside, last night I happened to meet the guy who apparently oversees the Coast Guard's Y2K program. We had a very interesting discussion about everything from the Panama canal to the oil tankers not offloading oil in the hour long window from 2330 to 0030 hours on Dec 31st/Jan 1st, as well as this weekends GPS rollover. He didn't seem overly concerned, believing that many ships will have few operation halting problems that can't be circumvented. Regards, Ron

To: Edwarda who wrote (8143)	10/26/1999 7:10:00 PM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Edwarda, I believe that Y2K can become a valuable "tool" it it teaches people to become better prepared for emergencies and shortages. The way it is now, far too many folks live from day to day, or week to week. And that is like waiting for a ticking "time bomb" to explode, because eventually, some kind of disaster will happen whether we like it or not, that will find some or even many of us in need of emergency supplies of food and water. Even some animals have the wits to store emergency supplies. We should learn from them and stop believing that everything will always be alright, because therein lies the real danger... Yogi