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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Donahoe who wrote (74840)8/20/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
John - I don't believe Amazon is a scam. But I would question what I characterize as "irresponsible" statements made by Jeff Bezos regarding the future profitability of Amazon. Although Bezos has toned it down some over the past few months, in the past he has made statements along the lines of "profits aren't important now". And I don't believe that Bezos has been totally forthright in articulating the risks of his business, at least not in his public statements. His approach is to essentially state "Trust me - we can forego profits now to capture market share" - leaving the investor to assume that Amazon will be profitable at some point in the future.

In my view, good CEOs tend to under-promise and over-deliver. Bill Gates is notorious for making statements warning of declines in Microsoft's future profit and sales growth - yet Microsoft's profit and sales grow every year. You could perhaps sign off Bezos lack of expression of caution as a sign of his youth and inexperience in running a multi-billion dollar company - or at least due to a lack of PR skills. But Bezos has taken Amazon and the investors that believe in him and put them out on a very thin limb, what with a high level of debt and mounting losses.

Those that believe in Amazon state that Amazon's current high level of spending, on marketing and advertising in building a strong brand and in expanding into new retail sectors, is necessary for the company to experience tremendous success long term. But in truth, there are tremendous risks in their strategy. The intense price competition and the low customer switching costs that the internet has provided may reek havoc on Amazon's margins - and may prevent the company from ever reaching a level of profitability that would justify their current stock price. Yet when analysts prop up the stock, they never mention the risks.

Amazon may succeed - and they may be hugely successful. But their current stock price is a result of investor mania - a mania that is driven by an overly-optimistic view of an uncertain future.

Thanks,
-Eric Wells



To: John Donahoe who wrote (74840)8/20/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: re3  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
John, i don't like how you responded to me, either time

please do not respond to me again, for i believe you are trying to trap me...if you respond to me again, i will complain to si admin

ike



To: John Donahoe who wrote (74840)8/20/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>Amazon has consistently projected losses into the future. A scam, IMO, would be painting a rosy scenario of eminent profits knowing otherwise. Not losses as far as the eye can see<<
John, I agree with your defense of Amzn. What Ceo can tell his analysts that we can't forecast profits for @ least 10 years, other than Bezos?
Any other Ceo would have seen his $660 stock get crushed.
If Bezos did lie, he'd do it behind his closed door meetings. Never in Public. Do you think he's a politician like Billy Clinton.
I'm assuming that your long on Amzn. Would you please reveal to us what your average cost is still?