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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (1111)	8/20/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

Matt; This DVI is something I made up, just looking at history it occurred to me the "most active" over a time frame was the best market indicator , and that I could sort out the regular leaders via any index. I started using the 3 month average volume X price, as Dollars traded is what I was after. ----------------- I still use 1/2 on Naz volume if I make up a hybrid index. Until I get actual information that they don't count em twice. Heck if they are doing it both ways then all the up/down volume, arms & or trin and such are all wrong. There would be no way to get apples to apples & I can't picture them doing that. I suspect if the if the ENCs pair trades they then double the volume amount to make it fit in with what the market makers are doing. Other wise it would be all jumbled up and none of the internal indicators they look at would be worth a flip. --------------- I don't see why they ever started counting them twice anyway except maybe to get mullets to think the Naz is hotter than the NYSE , ( in a way it is if hot means volatile ) The Naz is way more crooked than the NYSE. But any way the Dollar Volume Index is my invention, and it's still a work in progress. I'm sure it can be used several ways , using the most active dollar traded stocks as proxies it has to be adjusted a lot and difficult to back test, ( but it can be done ) except it won't have the same stocks in it as you go back in time. So far I as I can see it's a quantum leap in looking at real time market sentiment & I haven't taken the time or see a need to back test it. --------------------- I also use several other things I call a filter to the specialist and Market Makers jacking with the bid/ask or pushing the market around on days of slow volume. One is I take the total gain/loss x the percent of volume compared to Normal 3 month volume, like if my index moves 3% down but volume is .80% the 3% is filtered to 2.4%. Another thing it does is show when volume is UP or Down on the most active stocks much better than if you just look at the total market volume. It was clear as a bell that they were buying the most active on the 5th and again on the 11th and before it showed up in any other type index. Jim Most of my insights came from reading Value Line, I just looked at their data and concepts from another angle. One thing that stood out was the 87 crash. The most active stocks volume wise before the crash ( ones that had been gaining ) were the first ones to recover after the crash, they dipped too but went back up fast & on to show gains when the rest of the market was still down. I use to place a lot a faith on market cap because of all the index funds having to buy them, but I'm now convinced it's the most active ( dollar wise ) that hold the key. Jim