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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (8147)	8/20/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Edwarda	Respond to of 9818

I've been playing Hamlet with the scenarios in the table below in recent weeks. I've thought about reversing the probability weights for the mild six-month recession scenario and the severe 12-month one. In other words, I am leaning toward a slightly more optimistic stance on the severity of a recession. After all, the electricity and phone industries say they are ready to deliver their vital services, in the United States at least. Very lately.

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (8147)	8/20/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: flatsville	Respond to of 9818

Cheryl-- Re: >>Even Ed Yardeni, whom I've known for years, has expressed far less concern than he did previously.<< >Guess you haven't talked to him lately.< Why should analysts bother to keep track of what each other are saying? Most (99%+) are too busy developing a cogent explanation as to why we should not worry about the fact that the market is 45% or so overvalued according to the Fed's fair value model...an issue Yardeni never tires of rubbing their collective noses in. Most are probably trying to convince themselves, their funds, their banks, their big clients, (what have you) but above all the bag holders, that there's nothing to worry about re: y2k and are all too happy to believe what public companies are telling them. After all their jobs largely depend on a rising market. (Recall the wholesale slaughter of Latin American analysts not that long ago when those economomies took a nose dive.) Fewer and fewer analysts are actually performing thier basic function. More and more are spending their time managing relationships. There was a great deal of whining about this in the business press earlier this year. Can't wait to hear the analyst spin this coming Sept/Oct. The whirling will put the Dervish to shame.