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To: Steve Robinett who wrote (29673)8/20/1999 3:07:00 PM
From: Dr. Zax  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
>>A close today at 100 would make the most contracts expire worthless--max pain to the most people.

Max-pain may be a little bit of a misnomer. Just remember that for people who sold covered call they are happy if their contracts expire worthless. I think there is quite a bit of value in the max-pain analysis, but only if you understand it. If it is true that max pain works then the best way to play it is to wrote calls just above the max-pain point and write puts just below it. If you are in for the purpose of accumulating stocks, then you want to buy calls just below the max-pain line and but puts just above.
Other than a psychological draw... there should be no connection between the max pain and the actual closing price of a stock. There will, however, be a close connection between the price that a large firm finds it most advantageous to close at and the price it closes at on a witching Friday.

Dr.Zax



To: Steve Robinett who wrote (29673)8/20/1999 3:30:00 PM
From: Venditâ„¢  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
Steve

MaxPain

And the real number is!!!!! $95 according to the chart below.

ez-pnf.com

Edit in: That data is through yesterday's close, there could be a difference.



To: Steve Robinett who wrote (29673)8/20/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: Time Traveler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
Consider a company with the following strike prices, call volume, and put volume:

$10, 2, 3
$15, 6, 7
$20, 4, 5

And the price closes at $17.

Investors holding CALL10 would get 2 * ($17 - $10) = $14.
PUT10 would return $0, expired worthless.

CALL15 would return 6 * ($17 - $15) = $12.
PUT15 would still expire worthless.

CALL20 would expire worthless as well.
PUT20 would return 5 * ($20 - $17) = $15.

The total amount the investors get would be $14 + $0 +$12 + $0 + $0 + $15 = $41.

You can do this for all the closing prices. The closing price that returns the lowest amount would be the MaxPain point. That is the way I interpret it. Am I wrong?

Notice today's volume is another low one. If there is one manipulator, it is likely the price would close at the highest number of contracts. If there are quite a few manipulators, it would explain why the price is attracted by the MaxPain point. They were fighting against each other. Did we close at the MaxPain point today?



To: Steve Robinett who wrote (29673)8/21/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: 10K a day  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
The dollar values is immaterial>>>

Steve...<g>
Wow dude..
That's interesting...Thanks for clearing that up...LOL!