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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: S. M. SAIFEE who wrote (3597)	8/20/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

Next week may very well be good for NITE, partly for external factors and partly for NITE-specific factors: 1. Market is LONG overdue for a rally. 2. FOMC meeting will be a plus for the market WHETHER or NOT they increase rates. Traders just want to get the 0.25% increase behind them. --Have you been asking yourself: "How many times can the market 'discount' the forthcoming 0.25% rate increase?" Whenever some interest-rate sensitive news has hit the market in the past month, the market has had the appearance of digesting (discounting) the bad news. At a minimum, this trepidation has caused a healthy consolidation. 3. Talking heads have made EVERYONE fearful of the forthcoming interest rate increase for over 4 weeks now. - As a result there is a LOT of timid money on the sidelines waiting for the official green light from the pols at CNBC, WSJ, Barrons, etc. 4. Many good stocks are oversold, not to mention NITE. 5. NITE's ad campaign is just around the corner. It is without a doubt that they WILL target the misperception about market makers vs ECN's. 6. It is also likely that NITE may have something up their sleeve that will be "rolled out" in tandem with their forthcoming ad campaign. One possibility is they may be working on agreements with other ECN's (as alluded to in the Q2 conf call) that would be convenient to announce at the time of their ad campaign (which will most likely explain how NITE works WITH, not AGAINST, ECN's). There are other possibilities also: (Merrill Lynch or CMB partnership), etc. People question why NITE has been quiet during this protracted decline in share price. It just may happen that there are strategic reasons to remain silent about potential business plans/partnerships until they are ready to be rolled out. Why should they divulge what they're up to so their competitors can hear? NITE may also prefer making announcements AFTER the FOMC meeting when the market will be more reactive to good news. 7. The NasdaqTrader stats for July came out showing NITE increasing market share June vs. July and total volume increasing. It is just a matter of time before this information is synthesized and WIDELY reported by the media. There seems to be contradiction amongst analysts currently. Once the analysts are firing on all cylinders, we'll see tremendous rotation back into the eBrokerage stocks. Yes, we have to be concerned about OTCBB volume decline, but the jury is still out. If we have a substantial post-FOMC meeting rally and a Labor Day rally, these numbers can change ANYTIME. Once we get a broad rally in the markets, all the gloom and doom about the eBrokerage sector suffering poor volume goes out the window. 8. NITE had significant short interest (5,873,238 shares) as of the last short interest date. Shorts will be soon unwinding their positions (buying to cover, of course), either by a short squeeze or by the realization that the FOMC meeting will be in the past and NITE will be coming out swinging with a strong ad campaign. I know people have been saying "shorts will be covering soon" for the past month, but we are now at the point where many of the reasons that caused shorters to initiate short positions WILL SOON BE RESOLVED (FOMC mtg, NITE vs ECN's, and lower trading volume). All in all, with options expiration ending and NITE's continued oversold status, it seemed like an excellent time to double up on NITE today.