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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (7940)	8/21/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Tokyo Joe and chat room trading machinations:NYTimes nytimes.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (7940)	8/21/1999 9:47:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Some of my notes on Saturday's show. Note to any visiting profiteers who have tried to make money off of ABC property permission is granted only to print my posts and use them as toilet paper as some might consider that fair value anyway. Bob sees the dollar as a problem since eg. down 10% against the yen since the end of May. Dollar peaked in July and since then foreign purchases of treasuries have been decreasing. This has both inflationary implication due to increased import prices and and these treasury liquidation issues which can be a negative. To get a continued sustained bull we need 4 factors; 1)slower growth ,2)lower rates, 3)decreased inflationary expectations and 4) a firmer dollar. At the moment we have none of these things. Bob sees a 1/4% rate hike on Tuesday and October will depend on further data. The rate hike is likely to bring some relief rally. Currently the outlook for the market continues to deteriorate by which I assume he was referring to his indicators. It should be noted though that the model is either bullish or bearish and at this point it is still bullish. He does not see it turning bearish in the month of August(he may have said near zero chance) I would guess that since he made a similar visibility to end of month statement in July that it may be important what happens at the monthly data in updating his model. I think he said something like what would be needed for the model to turn negative would be more time at this point. As to money supply growth he mentioned M2 adjusted for inflation was up about 6% YOY but he mentioned the rate over the past 6 months was considerably less He mentioned 3 steps in a change in market direction. 1)the market reaches the area of benchmark highs which may have now been established in the low 11k's, 2)a bear market signal which again is not expected in the month of August and 3)the market slides. This could happen quickly after a bear call or could take weeks or a few months. Since the model is still positive at this time he of course recommends remaining fully invested but he stressed the importance of having a plan worked out so you are prepared and know exactly what type of action to take if and when a bear signal comes. I would say at this time reviewing all holdings and deciding what you would hold, what you would sell or what you would hedge and getting money moved around to the appropriate accounts to carry out any such plans by the end of August would be prudent. Marc