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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mact who wrote (29710)	8/20/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: yellowfintuna	Respond to of 41369

MLynch needs to learn the new math. Their assumptions of subscription growth rates (and loss to cable) is pretty lame. They are just starting to look at this type of business model. I have more faith in AOL's Marketing retention and loyalty programs.

To: mact who wrote (29710)	8/20/1999 7:04:00 PM
From: Pruguy	Respond to of 41369

Whats good for the goose is good for the gander...AOL is also playing the same game through compuserve, which is why that unit is growing quicker than it ever has. It is essentially a tit for tat game for the low cost ISP brands. No real reason to think that AOL will loose this battle either. They have won them all in the past so I would say the safe money should presume they will win this one as well.Certainly there are those that will disagree. These folks are probably not thinking from this perspective however. I think it is a long shot to assume that under equal circumstances, that if AOL lowers the price of compuserve, that anyone else will hurt them now when they haven't been able to do so in the past. Now, pretend you are in the future 3 years from now.You will no longer want the low cost provider because of broadband and the amount of time spent on-line and the number of uses for your ISP, which are much greater than they were in 99. Now your contract is up and you either stay with the low-frills slow service on a montly basis, or you switch carriers to a better one. My money says most will upgrade to a better service and then very mahy will opt for AOL, which will still be number one and be the only one with a complete anywhere strategy in 2002. FWIW thats my opinion and I feel very strongly it will work something like that...again not to different for the TV vs. cable analogy. Most people don't go straight to cable...They first get tv then upgrade to cable. cars are another example....not too many people buy a corvette as their first car, they work up the scale over time....how about phone service....anyone here have call waiting on their first bill? most people add that later....anyone here ordering a phone for the first time call baby bell and order 2 lines, thats usually an upgrade done later. howabout your first stereo? Was that the top of the line? Does anyone ever go down in their level of service...not unless you have a financial setback.....the game is getting you on-line and then upgrade you to premium services.....No one has a more fuill line to upgrade to than where AOL is going for the masses Thats my mantra for the weekend...have a good one everyone