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Technology Stocks : Concord Communications Inc (CCRD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Platter who wrote (63)	8/23/1999 4:18:00 PM
From: Iknownothing2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 84

To ALL: Something I found,, thought you all might be interested in,,,,,, TimSykes'StockPicks clubs.yahoo.com - #24! On Friday, I bought into a recent networking/internet IPO called Netscout (NASDAQ: NTCT). The deal was supposed to be 4 million shares priced between $14-$16, but they reduced the offering to 3 million shares at $11-$12. Obviously there was reduced demand, but they did IPO in horrible market conditions about a week and a half ago. NTCT makes network management software. Its a high demand area right now. They are a software company, but their products manage internet inastructure-they manage bandwidth utilization. NTCT can be compared to CCRD or MUSE most directly, to which they are undervalued. Lets compare(all in millions except pe ratio): 1year revenue: CCRD: 52.4, MUSE 48.5, NTCT 67.6 1year net income: CCRD:10.4, MUSE:6.6 NTCT: 10.5 PE ratio: CCRD: 49 MUSE: 122 NTCT: 30 MarketCap: CCRD: 533 MUSE: 906 NTCT: 415 Public Float: CCRD: 5.7 MUSE: 14 NTCT: 3 Granted NTCT's growth isnt as spectaular as MUSE, and even a little less than CCRD, but 60% revenue growth and 90% EPS growth yr/yr arent too shabby and do not deserve a pe of 30. CCRD and MUSE were both upgraded and initiated with buys late last week. NTCT is in an SEC mandated quiet period following their IPO, which will end in a few weeks. They IPOed at a rough period and I have noticed that recent IPOS are getting rediscovered for big moves. See DIGX, GOTO, NTOP, and FFIV for some examples. All basically faile das internet IPOS that couldnt even move up 50% in their first week, but now have at least doubled since their lows. I'm not saying NTCT will defnitely be the next FFIV, moving from the teens to the 80s in a few weeks, although it could. I see NTCT fairly valued maybe in the 20s or low 30s, but then again-quality internet plays usually get overvalued quickly. NTCT can move quickly due to the low float of 3million shares. Its actually a real company-they have $67 million in sales over the past year. Companies in the same networking/internet arena like ZOOX, ARBA, and RBAK have all soared into multi-billion companiies who have virtually no sales-the prices are held up by expectations of future sales. NTCT isn't an internet pure play like thos ecomapnies, its also involved in the high-growth arena of networking. Cisco is their biggest customer accounting for 51% of sales. If Cisco's sales drop off-NTCT is setup for an earnings warning-its not good to have one huge customer like that, but at least Cisco is growing fast too. So there are risks longterm. Shortterm, who knows what will happen next week with the Fed meeting and how the market will react. NTCT might not continue its recent run in a bad market as daytraders sell. But if the market is good, watch out for NTCT. The most important thing to watch is the volume-it should increase from the 422,000 traded Friday. I would add NTCT to my longterm account if I didnt need the cash for college. Right now I'm in NTCT as a short-term play. It'll probly gapup Monday, but I just don't see any longterm holders selling at these prices. Maybe a few short-termers will take the gapup creating a buying oppurtunity. The founders of NTCT are ex-Wang Labs executives along with Cisco's president. Its just so obvious that NTCT is undervalued and should be at least $20-$30 in the right market. get more info at netscout.comnormally I play OTCBBs, but that market just isnt performing. The rediscovering of IPOS and internet plays that have gotten hammered recently are hot-I have to go with the trends! clubs.yahoo.com Disclaimer: Don't buy because I told you to, do your own research and always consult a financial advisor