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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ynot who wrote (28321)	8/21/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50167

Late Saturday night and I am sitting here reading some interesting posts and articles, sometime I think how lucky to learn from far and distant places. Markets will see rate hikes and fine tuning of monetary policy but in my humble opinion it is much more than that we are at the doorstep of most far reaching changes mankind has ever seen. Like Newton's laws of Physics were overruled by Einstein Theory of relativity we are in a age where we will see some significant reinterpretations of laws of economics. This market should have not really rallied from 5000 to 11000, the point most of these perpetual bears make are right, on high P/E?s, on high astronomical valuations, on constant inflation worries or deflation ice-age, divergent views like over-capacity in face of 79.9% capacity utilization that is considered inflationary. Since last bull run every time I have heard the argument of why market should not have crossed 5000 it has send shudders down my spine, the truth of the argument and the rationale behind has been so spot on. But someone has missed something otherwise we should have gone down from 5000 to 2500 as most of the fund managers expected. Not that 11000 is a sacrosanct number the fall is more likely here than ever, but the reasons of the fall are the same as they were when market was at 5000, it did not fall than, it will not fall for those reasons now. Neither fine tuning of monetary policy will kill this market nor few interest rate rises. The biggest fear I have is the nemesis of this market would be lack of demand, the signs of that global deflation so much bragged about last year are not to be seen on the horizon. With global demand picking up and oil prices inching higher we will see price deflation being overtaken by price stability, however corporate profits would jump, the ?brandised? world will be ruled by product developers and product masters, the era belongs to those who owns the technology it may be Timbuktu. That market is going higher does not worry me, right now fortunately it is US and not Timbuktu, so keep invested in US. Take advantage of falls when these market tremors create valuations due to rising fears of inflation, it may temporarily bring market down, however step in and secure your future. They are so darn right. So is Warren Buffet he is right too, he does not understand this economy he is not a part of AOL he is out of it. However he understood the global reach of coke and made that strategic investment, so did that Prince Waleed who picked Citi at 10$. Bnone of these investments when they were made even Solomon?s in case of Warren were low risk they were hi risk gambles that paid off. I think that new age belongs to new visionaries, we are crippled with short sightedness and are failed doomed visionaries, we try to define today?s distance-less world from yesterdays sextant?s. traders who will try to define this market with tools of Columbus will only find the tip of the continent. Just some thoughts to sleep on... thinking is virtue and I try to bring new issues so as to enlarge my limited scope of vision, learning is what we do in markets every day. It is just a little exercise of mind to play your bets against the best in the world, the little comfort we have that we have some time the right mix..