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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chung Lee who wrote (29732)	8/21/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: Pruguy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

29034,29035,and 29037 is why I believe msft is not a threat...you can disagree but I doubt you will be able to back up your argument as thouroughly as this....it all makes sence to me

To: Chung Lee who wrote (29732)	8/21/1999 1:07:00 AM
From: CGarcia	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

AOL already offers cheaper access to the net than $12 a month...It's called Compuserve...MSN is going to have to go $9.95 or cheaper to make AOL drop it's price...right now the premium of $21.95 a month sounds like a lock...ask around...see how many people you know who are on AOL will be switching to free access? You'll be surprised what they have to say....I've said it before and I'll say it again...about 80% of AOL are newbies, who I'm finding out remain newbies for a LONG time...they won't be trading in the simplicity of AOL for freebies anytime soon :)

To: Chung Lee who wrote (29732)	8/21/1999 12:06:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Respond to of 41369

Chung Lee posted: my conclusion to the collective dumping of AOL shares by insiders -----> they have, internally, decided to match MSN step by step, when MSN starts to ad blitz about $12 or lower a month access, which they already offer thru Costco, AOL will respond with matching the offer, if aol doesn't, it will lose memberships and don't give me that AOL premium contents balogna sheesh. strangely enough, I think AOL may benefit in the long run, you want more eyeballs locked to your propiertary system, as MSFT locks up the desktop OS and apps, it simply can not afford to let MSN gain a foothold, the only problem is street will not be kind to that kind of actions, the day price wars news is plastered in the business section of your local newspapers, AOL will probably have reached its lowest price point and will starts to gradually gain back. [Bold added] Chung Lee, Its ironic. You are bearish on AOL, while I am bullish, yet we agree 100% on almost every aspect of the competitive thrust by MSFT and AOL's likely response. The only difference of opinion I have is that AOL will fashion a competitive response that leads with its price-based service, Compuserve, while protecting as much of the premium pricing as possible on its flagship AOL service. But we definitely agree that a price based challenge from MSN will not go unanswered, and that the long term big beneficiary will be AOL. Do you believe that history tends to repeat? I do. Lets look back to the "old days" when the ISP's were using flat-rate, unlimited usage pricing against AOL's limited, hourly-rate programs. The media drumbeat got louder and louder, and AOL's stock was under pressure, until the day Steve Case announced $19.95 unlimited. That marked the bottom in the stock, and the resurgence of the user growth rate. In fact, the user response was so overwhelming it started the AOL capacity problems, and a whole new rash of media coverage confirming AOL's runaway marketing success (while trashing them for the busy signals). I believe that a user on the AOL system (or any system with switching hassles) tends to stay a user, so the worst mistake AOL management can make is to fail to credibly answer competitive price initiatives. If there is one thing AOL management MUST DO to protect the price of the stock and keep it growing, it is to maintain and grow their user base across their brands. It is the e-commerce revenues that these new users will generate tomorrow that give the stock its value. I would ask you to answer this question: Has Steve Case ever wavered in his mission to add users to AOL? As long as he doesn't, the stock will follow the growth in users. Capitalism is cool. Brian