To: Teresa Lo who wrote (23541 ) 8/24/1999 3:47:00 AM From: Teresa Lo Respond to of 99985
Another FOMC Meeting...Morning Market SnapShot for Tuesday, August 24, 1999 The Dow Jones Industrial Index grabbed headlines yesterday after making a new all-time high, one day before the FOMC meeting where consensus seems to be for a ¬ point rate hike with bias remaining neutral. Traders seemed to jump the gun, believing that this may be the last rate hike for some time. Mood is very positive in the market. As technicians, we will not be making economic prognostication; rather, we will be observing the charts as all buyers and sellers who take action in the market are recorded as price and volume transactions. The market moves in mysterious ways and the only thing that is ever certain about it is the fact that it behaves in a way that seems to fool the majority, particularly at the big turns, the part of the trend where it bends as it ends. For example, if we look beneath the hoopla and use a ratio chart, we can see that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been outperforming almost all of the other major indices for some time, ever since interest rates and inflation fears began to surface. While the media focuses on exciting and flashy Internet stocks, the stocks of the Dow Industrials (and other deep cyclical stocks such as chip makers), mostly the beneficiaries of inflation, have been powering up without even being noticed. Interestingly enough, however, on a test of the all-time high today, the Dow makes headlines. Paradoxically, today is a much more risky day. Failure to blast upward on the heels of the announcement from the FOMC will set up a double top on the daily chart for the Dow Industrials while the other major indices are not even close to their old highs. This would produce the classic divergence of cyclical stocks at the end of a bull-run. Looking at the interest rate front, the Dow Utilities Index made a double bottom last week on the test of the late July low. Now it?s at cross roads, having formed a spinning top at resistance on the daily chart. The September Treasury bond has traded in an extremely narrow range over the past four days with traders unable to move it up or down. The waiting game is on, and the FOMC meeting will be the catalyst for a move either way. The next FOMC meeting is not due until October 5, so the market will focus and key off of second quarter earnings for the next while. Charts specific to these comments have been posted to intelligentspeculator.com