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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (27370)	8/21/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: pompsander	Respond to of 93625

Uncle: A short squeeze is likely to begin on Wednesday, right after the Fed. meeting on the 24th. The fed action will clear the last hurdle for the markets to, once again, return to worrying about earnings and market share. In this environment the IDF being one week away is a perfect situation. All the articles and interviews given in the last ten days, and the ones to be given in the next few days, will start bumping up on the screens of the big houses and funds. Traders will look for opportunities to exploit a time-critical sceanario. Rambus short interest percentage and the IDF present a perfect situation for the nasty traders to exploit the uncertainty to their advantage. Option action will pick up big time and some one will try to run the price up a ways to see if it "ignites". Should be fun to watch.

To: unclewest who wrote (27370)	8/21/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: at what point do you think... I don't have a short position, I'm holding rambus puts. I'm generally a very conservative investor, and wouldn't dream of taking on a futures position. I can afford to ride out my puts. The nature of puts is that they'll be way up or pretty much worthless by the time I get significant news. (By the way, at this point I'm ahead, so far, so good :-) I'm afraid I have no idea about what point some of the futures traders might decide to get out of (or increase) their positions. I don't play in that league. Maybe someone who does, and follows this list can answer. I still think that the most likely near term outcome is that Intel will be forced to make some provision for PC133, the rumors are pretty consistent. The recent news of Intel chipset problems, which gives VIA, etc. a stronger voice in the near term future of memory interface design gives me more confidence in my present position. I will certainly re-evaluate my position after news from IDF has been digested. If the news is bad (from my present holding perspective - good from your holding perspective), and Intel continues to say it won't provide support for anything but rambus from the 820 onward, I'll probably try to sell the rambus puts, but I doubt they'd be worth much at that point. What else could happen? Well, we know that there are some benchmarks like memtest that will show a huge gain from rambus, but don't really mean much. If a clear benefit, say 7 to 10% performance improvement could be demonstrated to be due solely from rambus when running apps like Office, then rambus - for me - has a new lease on life, and I'd want out of my puts. But I suspect the performance details that will be given will be more than a little hard to pin down - just as many feel that the TomsHardware numbers weren't valid, there will likely be some issues regarding any favorable tests presented at IDF. I don't expect clear information on real world performance until systems are in the hands of independent testers. Another factor that could come into play once machines are out, will be that the coppermine-rambus machines will be compared to Athlon-PC100 machines. If the Coppermines don't beat the Athlons, clock for clock, there may be an appearance that rambus 800 is no better than PC100, and PC133 would be only a few months away for Coppermine and Athlon. Intel could claim that coppermine is the better chip but that rambus is holding it back. That gets Intel out of admitting their chip is inferior(if its numbers aren't good) They could make rambus the fall guy while they work on speeding up Coppermine. So I'll probably just stick it out till after coppermine is out. If coppermine does particularly well, then rambus will get some of the credit, and this would make rambus look even better - and make my puts worth even less :-( I know that didn't answer your question, but it was the best I can do. Dan