To: LOGAN12 who wrote (12668 ) 8/21/1999 7:11:00 PM From: Scarecrow Respond to of 19700
Linda -- RE: How can this stock hold up if they miss the numbers again? Do you, or does anyone know what is projected? With all due respect, with CMGI, how can you define what a miss is? The bulk of their business model is based, by definition, on non-recurring revenue. Therefore, whether they hit or miss is, to the careful investor, irrelevant. Granted, there are a lot of holders of CMGI who might not meet that criteria(!) which causes all the sturm und drang every three months. But, in truth, reported EPS just doesn't matter with CMGI because they can make it be any number you'd like -- simply by selling more ENGA, LYCOS, or what-have-you. This is all the more true if you consider what DW said on CNBC: CMGI will continue to primarily be an IPO incubator. Who cares how their operating business does? It accounts for a virtually statistically insignificant portion of their market cap. What to watch for: IPO pipeline announcements (i.e. are they spinning off AV), the IPO market in general; and then what investments they're making in ICast, etc. -- where, admittedly, earnings WILL matter (but not this quarter, or even this year). I think what Jill and others (myself included) have been speculating is that, given the very shaky market for Inet stocks in the past three months, CMGI is unlikely to post capital gains on sales of their public holdings. In fact, I *hope* that's the case, since as a long-term investor, I'd much prefer that they HANG ON to those shares and save them for selling in a better market/environment. That will deliver far more share value than dumping at this quarter's quasi-fire-sale levels simply to meet some mythical and unimportant First-Call consensus number. Scarecrow