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To: LLCF who wrote (5052)	8/22/1999 10:14:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 54805

David, re: the "size of market" issue, Gregg Powers wrote: So what will the wireless world look like in two or three years? Will wireless internet appliances, prototyped by QC's pdQ, become ubiquitous? How rapidly will wireless data become part of our every life, ala the Internet? Will the capacity gains afforded by 1XRTT begin to enable mobile wireless networks to compete head to head with landline? I could prattle on and on, but the point is, telecom is perhaps one of the world's most dynamic industries. Wireless telecom is the most rapidly growing subset of telecom. And, Qualcomm is positioned as the technological locus of both 2G and 3G wireless...and you think that Qualcomm should be valued like the run-of-the-mill large capitalization equity? Within the context of the above, I am sure that many people thought Microsoft was fully valued, based on its high PE multiple, back in 1986. If the personal computer had remained a toy rather than evolving into a critical business productivity tool, such a conclusion might have been warranted. It took tremendous vision to understand that Microsoft's software was an enabling technology that would allow PC's to become mainstream business tools. I would be disappointed if you fail to perceive that parallelism as it relates to CDMA and wireless telephony. Message 10698324

To: LLCF who wrote (5052)	8/22/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

How about comparing market size and growth rate between a Cisco and Q?? Seems Q's could be quite a bit smaller in both cases??? Good idea, David. What do you think the market size and growth rate will be? I'm hazy, at best, on both. As for market size, the market is any person on the planet at least 8 years old. How do you calculate the size of that market? There's no question that the unit price of Qualcomm's product is a lot lower than the unit price of Cisco's market. But Cisco isn't going to sell nearly as many of its products as Qualcomm will. So I really don't have any empirical evidence to show how the two markets compare in size, though I tend to think Qualcomm's will be bigger because almost everyone on the planet is a potential customer. And that's just the CDMA market. I'm not including any of the other markets Qualcomm has its fingers in today, nor any of the markets that the Q will penetrate that we havent' thought about. When Microsoft was at the point that Qualcomm is today, did any of us remotely think it would be in all the businesses that it's in today? Not I. As for the growth rate, the best we can do is to be aware of the growth rates of past gorillas selling enabling product to consumers. There are darn few of them, but in each case their growth was tremendous, and the growth of their stock has far outpaced the growth of the company. Anyone wanna take a sincere stab at estimating Qualcomm's market and growth? --Mike Buckley