To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39401 ) 8/22/1999 12:32:00 PM From: Rarebird Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116825
George, Greenspan said that if the gold price rose enough to threaten the economy he would intervene to encourage leasing. What he meant was that if the price went above $1000 per ounce and it was causing foreign governments to shun the U.S. dollar, thus causing it to plunge to multi-year lows, then he would act. This has nothing to do with the current situation, which is just the reverse. Most certainly the paybacks from central bank leasing will eventually be greater than new central bank leasing, which will put upward rather than downward pressure on the gold market. Remember that all these loans must be paid back eventually in gold. Once the price rises there will be a sharp drop in new leasing, since the risk in a gold loan is having to repay in a higher price. The only reason people were borrowing gold to begin with is that you were able to get a 2% interest rate instead of, say, 7% from a bank. If gold rises more than 5% than this differential makes gold less favorable to borrow than ordinary money. As a final comment, notice how popular the yen carry trade was before it abruptly ended. Far more than the gold carry. PS Again, I need to inform you that my posting of articles does not necessarily entail my agreement with the content of the article in part or in whole. If I post an article, it is because I think it is worth reading and it is thought provoking. I basically think for myself and I do not subscribe to nor adhere to any investment adviser's opinion. I try to read many different points of view concerning an issue. If one is bearish, I think it is wise to read a lot of bullish viewpoints, as I do on different threads on SI. In contrast to some who get personally offended, I like and welcome having my ideas challenged. If one is bullish, I think it is wise to read the bearish threads on SI. I do post my own personal point of view, publicly and via PM, as you well know.