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To: Hobie1Kenobe who wrote (29861)	8/22/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: nohalo	Respond to of 41369

I disagree slightly with your scenario. If there is no rate hike, and the fed goes to a negative bias, I believe the market will see this as a short-term positive, and we will see a rally for one or two days. The jitters will then set in about a possible quarter or half point hike next month, and the market will likely trend downward. In September, realization will set in that the kids are back at school, traders are back at desks, people are back from holidays, and hitting the web, and shopping on the web. New bull market will begin, and market will begin to understand Greenspan's strategy of talking tough, and trying to keep inflation at bay, when there is no inflation, and at the same time keeping the US and world economy humming. It will learn to ignore the small rate hikes and the threats of a hike, and move upwards. This will probably reverse in the year 2000, when and if unemployment levels get dangerously low, and wage inflation threatens. Then AG will stop threatening, and will act decisively, and then the market will tank. Well, Vendit, What do you think? DA