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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (7989)	8/22/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Jay, You're trying to confuse this issue with facts. Completely unfair! ;-) It's so much nicer to be seduced by the thought that one is obviously much more brilliant than the 50 million investors who have bid stock prices up to bubble territory; and to also believe that one is also sufficiently brilliant to know exactly when to get back in - the point at which those 50 million now irrationally depressed investors are about to simultaneously reenter their manic phase. And of course, the thought that perhaps the 50 million investors just might be right could never be allowed in. "Everyone is out of step except my son, John." syndrome. Joe Granville once had a big following and could move markets. So did Garazelli, briefly. I don't know that Brinker or other timers hold much sway lately. FWIW, Ian.

To: orkrious who wrote (7989)	8/22/1999 11:46:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Jay re<<<<Let's say Brinker calls for a bear market. Let's even make the assumption that he's right. Is it not better to hold onto the stocks you think are undervalued (I know they may become more undervalued) and ride it out?>>>> NO, unless you enjoy losing hard earned profits. Since you have only listened to the show a few times you don't have the track record of many years of Brinker making many brilliant calls on buying opportunities etc. I was skeptical for quite a while with a small amount in an index fund when I first heard Bob, I suspect most are when they first hear him. It takes several years to really appreciate the broadness and depths of Bob's abilities which are based on his professional background and ability to utilize it. The only times when I screwed up bad in the past many years was when I went against his advice. I think another fact that should be considered is that Bob has often stated one of the worst things an investor can do is be out of a bull market and his model and approach is not to try to catch small movements in the market but stay with the major trend which has been bullish for the past 9 years. The fact that the factors that led to this mega bull market are all starting to deteriorate and that a bear call from Bob may materialize perhaps within the next two months is something I not only wouldn't ignore but depending on the circumstances will not only be risk adverse but may even wish to take on some risk on the short side if conditions seem appropriate. The factors Bob is talking about deteriorating now are not some super secret black box issues but are the kind of things that have historically led to the end of bull markets and I am glad he is speaking about them so maybe we'll stop hearing from those who acuse Bob of being just a permabull in in a market timer's clothing Marc

To: orkrious who wrote (7989)	8/22/1999 11:51:00 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I don't understand is people's inclination to divest themselves of stocks and maintain a cash position, since extensive research has shown that virtually no one can time a market well enough to beat the averages. The research on EMH that I am familiar with does not make the conclusion that "virtually no one" can time the market well enough to beat the averages. Can you provide some references? AA

To: orkrious who wrote (7989)	8/23/1999 5:48:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Jay: Re: "Let's say Brinker calls for a bear market. Let's even make the assumption that he's right. Is it not better to hold onto the stocks you think are undervalued (I know they may become more undervalued) and ride it out?" It is a matter of personal preference. When Brinker makes goes to a bear market sell signal, he sees 5% upside and 25% - 30% or more downside over six to eighteen months. Now that is in the general market. If one is a tech. stock junkie like many on SI, then your portfolio would go down much more than the general market What you do with Brinker's information is your choice. One could raise some cash or do some asset allocation and ride it out. I would rather sell out with those probabilities especially with stocks at record valuations.