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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wily who wrote (27400)	8/22/1999 10:56:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: penetration of Rambus if the price premium was 10% Rambus price delta of 10% by January or December '00? It's not likely either way, the estimates I've seen are for numbers closer to 40% for most of next year, then a gradual decline over several years. Much of this depends on the news from IDF. If Intel leaves SDRAM sockets on their motherboards, I don't think rambus will get much more than 10% until mid 2001 (if ever). If Intel makes all of their new chipsets rambus only, we could see 20% next year and more than 50% by '01, but in such circumstances we'd also likely see Intel at less than 50% market share - and I expect neither 40+% Intel market share nor all rambus only motherboards from them. You realize that to get rambus to these numbers, Intel will have to commit market suicide - I know that Intel supports rambus, but I don't think that they'll go that far. I'm pretty negative on rambus, but I'm sure you're looking at all of the other posts. Many of them are more optimistic about rambus - wrongly, of course :-) Dan