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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (32214)	8/23/1999 6:41:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

G, Thanks for the 'past is a prologue links' ... One major difference between the two time periods: Asia. I would argue that Asia (as a continent made up of important silicon consuming and producing countries) is in a little better shape in the Summer of 1999 versus the Fall (no pun) of 1997. But, we shall see. Clearly, The Street feels that something significant (and bad) is afoot. The tendency is to want to brand them as idiots and buy in the shop of the Drunken Merchant. Still, as luck would have it, The Street is right about 50% of the time. I see a good economy with solid silicon consumption and a reasonable recovery in the sector that takes us for a ride longer than the trip from Broadway to South Station (i.e., longer than the 1997 Quasi Recovery). The real questions become: 0) Is a cornerback worth $7.1mm per year with a $13mm signing bonus? 1) Can I buy a Teres with a Mesa cleaner? 2) Will I ever have a normal night's sleep? 3) Will Berkshire Hathaway buy AMAT for .041 Shares? 4) Will Waste Management turn it around? 5) Can AMAT reduce the damage at .18 and below on its IPS? 6) Will John Valentin ever get another timely hit? 7) Why would one claim a "Leadership Position" in Ion Implant when you are a distant 3rd in market share with only one product that addresses only one of the three segments of implant? 8) Does anyone actually care whether the Fed raises rates tomorrow? And if they do, is there a Master Dividend Discount Model that ratchets down all P/E's? 9) Could AMAT outgrow the industry next year ... or is a 33% share of some poorly defined market just about as good as it gets? 10) Did you see Berkshire's last filing? Could he possibly buy anymore bonds? The Oracle must be thinking massive Fed tightening here. <g ... preemptive: for the person who tries to explain bonds to me ...> 11) Will there ever be any consolidation of consequence in the WFE industry? Or were SFAM-IPEC and FSI-YieldUP the pinnacles of M&A activity? 12) Will Disney finally tick down discretionary CapEx from the $5.2bn level? And if they do, won't it seem like you 'missed the stock in the mid-$20's? 12) Does AMAT really think that Japan Inc. is not going to spend again? Or was that just the way they felt on the call? 13) Do you really think that Nike would let Venator go out of business given that 44% of Venator's sales are Nike branded products and that 44% of Venator's sales equates to about 23% of Nike's sales? 14) Is the Fabless Model the King or will people become disenchanted when it becomes the Waferless Model? 15) Why didn't I buy Hannaford Bros. in the low $50's? 16) Couldn't we just look at AMAT's last quarter and say that they mismanaged bookings in the first six months and that, in hindsight, they should have been more linear in the calendar 1Q and 2Q periods? 17) Are all WFE Industry recoveries only 6 months long, or was 1997 the exception to the rule? 18) Why does a 4Pack of Duracell Ultra D-size batteries cost $7.59? Is this a sign of inflation, or is the 'Ultra' a significantly different product up to which I am willing to trade in order to get the maximum performance from my Fisher-Price baby swing? 19) What do you think the yields are on a 256Mb SDRAM wafer? 20) Is Mattel interesting at these prices or are Barbie, Matchbox, HotWheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl dying brands with no hope? 21) Will INTC figure out .18 will they just quit and stop spending forever (it isn't that profitable a business anyway)? 22) Green Mountain French Roast tastes a lot like Starbucks' Sumatra. Yup. Monday morning. --Duker

To: Gottfried who wrote (32214)	8/23/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: tombet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G, I wonder how many people bought AMAT at the October '97 split and saw the stock price plummet over the next couple of months? I'm sure alot of investors were expecting a bump up in the stock price and were very disappointed. I'm happy to say AMAT was my first stock purchase on DEC. 26th, '97 and plan on holding it for a long time.

To: Gottfried who wrote (32214)	8/23/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: Henry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, thanks for links. someone posted a graph a few days ago with AMAT price vs SEMI orders. back in Apr 95 to Oct 95, orders flattened then shot up for 4 to 5 months while AMAT price DROPPED during this reacceleration. do you think we will see the same pattern? even if new orders start to accelerate again next year, what's the say we dont have a repeat of 1996? i think the Street knows we are in an upcycle, there doesnt seem to be much upside surprise left. also, psychologically, i think semi stock prices would drop if b2b dips below 1.0 even though compared to last year bookings are significantly up. i am looking for a peak either in Oct 99 or Feb 2000. just my guess based on past performance. luck to all