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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (43109)	8/23/1999 7:49:00 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Welcome back Bill Here are my thoughts on this week and the future. INTEREST RATES BEYOND Y2K? . A MONETARY EXPERIMENT Our present steep short term yield curve less than 2 years and flat beyond may be adversely effecting arbitrage liquidity in foreign and domestic markets, if for this reason alone I am expecting the Fed to increase short term rates more quickly now. Of course, the question is not monetary policy over the next few months, Allen Greenspan has repeatedly been telling us the Fed will take back the extra liquidity. Three interest rate cuts equates to three rate increases. The real question is what will Fed policy be over the next four plus years? Years projected to have ever increasing spending and investing by the baby boomers. How will monetary policies hold down increasing inflationary pressures from full employment, increased asset conversion flows, and a normalizing dollar. It appears we will enter the new millennium with a critical monitory experiment. I think we best all realize it is an experiment and anticipate some fine tuning will be required. So what does this mean for the market? My intermediate indicators remain in sell mode, yet fund flows are positive. I expect the dollar yen to stabilize around this level. Logically I think consumer debt is the key. Since markets are not always logical! I will probably be flipping the gambler's coin sometime this week for a short term trend reversal. Skeet