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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (1126)	8/23/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: Stoctrash	Respond to of 2103

Matt, thanks... I got stopped out late Friday and this AM on the short side and I'm 1/3 long now.

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (1126)	8/23/1999 9:01:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

Matthew, Been tinkering with your spreadsheet and data (I haven't broke it yet<ggg>). For the Nasdaq 100... Current uptrend since 8/11/99: 9 days low=2164.55 high=2385.87 (close) difference=221 points or 10.2% REVERSAL PROBABILTY Absolute Movement Percent for 10 days @ 6.18% = 92.50% Absolute Movement Percent for 10 days @ 12.49% = 96.25% I figure were are in there somewhere...So, after a 2+ day uptrend the reversal probability is 50%, for 2.9 days it is 71.25% and for 3.28 days it is 81.88%. That leads me to think that sometime tomorrow we shall see a short-term high. The bollinger band projection (using the current trend) for tomorrow is a high of about 2450. Guess what, that corresponds with the previous high on 7/19/99. Ahhhhh, there's nothing more beautiful than a double top! The QQQ is trading at a relative NDX value of 2392.50. That's a 6.53 point NDX difference which translates into .3265$ on the QQQ (which is relatively low). My short entry tomorrow will be for NDX 2420 or QQQ 121 1/4. The order will be cancelled by 1 pm if that target is not reached (because of the Fed). Buy to cover target at this point is QQQ 117 1/4. (It may be lower if the Fed gives us a big surprise!) Matthew, does this make sense? Is it correct? Comments and corrections welcome! Chris