To: JRI who wrote (140259 ) 8/24/1999 7:45:00 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 176387
~OT~ John: 'Wall Street sees no more Fed rate hike in 1999'...FYI... <<By Isabelle Clary NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Wall Street brokerage firms -- which nearly unanimously anticipated Tuesday's Federal Reserve increase in short-term interest rates -- widely expect the U.S. central bank to remain on the sidelines for the rest of 1999. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), citing concern over strong domestic spending and tight labor markets, raised the federal funds rate for overnight inter-bank lending by one quarter-point to 5.25 percent. The Fed Board matched the hike by raising the discount rate for direct borrowing from the central bank to 4.75 percent from 4.50 percent. This was the first back-to-back Fed tightening since the spring of 1994. THE REUTERS POLL In a Reuters poll conducted right after the Fed's rate announcement covering the 30 U.S. primary dealers -- the firms that deal directly with the New York Fed: -- 25 firms said the Fed will not raise the fed funds rate or the discount rate before year-end, -- three firms forecast another quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate to 5.50 percent, most likely when the FOMC next meets on October 5. The FOMC will meet again on November 16 and December 21. One of these firms also expected another discount rate hike to 5.00 percent in October. -- one firm saw a slightly greater than 50-percent chance of a Fed hike in October. -- one firm's forecast was not immediately available. In a prior poll taken by Reuters on August 20, six firms expected the Fed to raise interest rates again in the closing quarter of 1999. THE RATIONALE FOR A STEADY FED POLICY The Fed hinted at a steady monetary policy outlook when it said its latest tightening, combined with a recent increase in long-term market rates, ''should markedly diminish the risk of rising inflation.'' Jim Glassman, senior economist at Chase Securities, explained, "They are telling us the inflation risks are balanced. ''Core inflation is actually still declining... It's worth looking at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding energy and tobacco. You can still see signs of falling inflation.'' John Ryding, managing director at Bear, Stearns and Co. -- one firm that did not expect a Fed tightening today -- said the Fed had already done more than was needed, given the absence of an actual inflation threat. ''I am disappointed that they went, based on flawed logic... They are preemptive and they said 'We are done for the year,''' Ryding agreed. But Brian Fabbri, chief economist at Paribas Corp., saw ''a very good chance they will raise the funds rate by 25 points in October and go into neutral (policy stance) because they get too close to the Year 2000.'' Fabbri pointed out that one reason for the Fed to do three back-to-back rate hikes would be ''to remove the full 75-point easing they did last year,'' to appease financial markets rocked by a global crisis. ''They'll also move on the discount rate to maintain the 50-point spread,'' Fabbri added. U.S. PRIMARY DEALERS' FFR FORECASTS THROUGH YEARD-END 1999 Firm Change in the 5.25-pct funds rate ABN AMRO N/A Aubrey G. Lanston no change Banc of America Sec no change Banc One Capital Mkt no change Barclays Capital no change Bear, Stearns & Co. no change Chase Securities no change CIBC World Markets no change CS First Boston no change Daiwa Securities no change Deutsche Bank Sec up 25-bps in Oct DLJ Securities no change Dresdner Kleinwort no change Fuji Securities no change Goldman, Sachs no change Greenwich Capital no change HSBC Securities (USA) no change J.P. Morgan no change Lehman Brothers Inc. no change Merrill Lynch Gov Sec no change Morgan Stanley up 25 bps in Oct Nesbitt Burns Sec. 50-pct-plus odds, up 25 bps in Oct Nomura Securities no change Paine Webber Inc. no change Paribas Corp. up 25 bps in Oct on FFR/discount Prudential Securities no change SG Cowen Securities no change Salomon SB no change Warburg Dillon Read no change Zions First Bank no change>>biz.yahoo.com