To: bearcub who wrote (8324 ) 8/23/1999 8:42:00 PM From: C.K. Houston Read Replies (1) | Respond to
<yardeni HAS changed his tune on y2k. it became obvious to the rest of us when he issued his famous matrix about 4 months ago after pressure from deutsche bank brass. janelle and i were livid that he became such a yellow polecat by cranking up hysterically high his hopes and dreams for all to turn out just ducky on 01/01/00, as compared to his previous calls for not just a mild 'economic downturn' but an actual recession which could escalate into something much nastier."EYES WIDE SHUT" by Ed Yardeni (August 10, 1999) I concluded that there was a 30% chance of a global recession in 2000 as a result of Y2K disruptions. I subsequently raised the odds to 70% about a year ago. I noted that I might lower my subjective probability by now if the news warranted such a reassessment. Unfortunately, as documented below, I remain at 70%. I realize that no other economist or investment strategist on Wall Street foresees a recession ...However, as documented below, there remain several weak links in the Y2K chain. In my opinion, the two most likely causes of global recession are breakdowns in the global just-in-time manufacturing system and in the global oil industry. Indeed, Y2K could cause another energy crisis. So I am not changing my probability assessment for now. I'll revisit the matter in October [...]ED YARDENI yardeni.com
