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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (66693)	8/24/1999 1:10:00 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Respond to of 132070

mb - (...While I have great sympathy for the basic position, it rests on several unproven assumptions, of which the least believable involves competition. When have we ever seen "all the positive results of productivity and efficiency improvement flow to the consumer"?...) No real argument there. My points would be something like the following - 1. The real effectiveness of the operating economy is not, and probably cannot be, accurately characterized by numbers. Certainly not the existing measurements. 2. The success of operating businesses is only weakly tied to the economic measurements. Business success follows from competitive success over rivals, whereas the overall economy best serves consumers when that competition results in a hard-fought draw. 3. The success of capitalization-weighted index funds may be due in part to a form of survivorship bias which overweights the winners of decisive competitive battles, and underweights the participants in standoffs. However, this is still only an historical result that must and will fail as an excess of investors climb aboard and pre-appreciate the stocks. Thanks, Don

To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (66693)	8/24/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Respond to of 132070

Oh, yes: FOMC tightens (1/4 ea. rate), indicates it may be finished for the year. PC, please hold off on your pronouncements for a few days -- I'd like to increase my puts during a nice runup. Maybe you could get INTC over 90? Pretty please? <g> -mb

To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (66693)	8/28/1999 2:21:00 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

mb - (That's a fine thought experiment. While I have great sympathy for the basic position, it rests on several unproven assumptions, of which the least believable involves competition. When have we ever seen "all the positive results of productivity and efficiency improvement flow to the consumer"? Rarely, if ever....) I happened across this and realized that it had the characteristics that might apply. High rate of productivity growth and all benefits flowing to the consumer. bog.frb.fed.us "...These technical advances have added up to a huge increase in the productivity of farmers and farm workers. Over the past thirty years, farm value-added per hour worked has grown at an average rate of more than 4-1/2 percent, roughly three times the rate of increase in output per hour in the nonfarm business sector of our economy. With the demand for farm output rising less than half as fast as productivity growth, the amount of labor input in agriculture has contracted dramatically. At the same time, the faster rate of farm productivity growth has led to a sustained decline in the prices of farm products relative to nonfarm business prices, at a compound average rate of roughly 3 percent per year over the past three decades..." - Alan Greenspan 3/16/99 Regards, Don