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To: GVC who wrote (7387)	8/24/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: GVC	Respond to of 81484

Technically speaking, the analysis at this site cant get any clearer: SELL... equities.barchart.com

To: GVC who wrote (7387)	8/24/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: goldsheet	Respond to of 81484

> Bob, ...based on that formula you stated (xau=[gold * .30372] - > 13.50), then at $400 gold, the xau would only get to 108 level? > based on your current historical information? :(( Well, that's one of the problems with statistics, a linear regression gives you an average value, when we all know that in the real world there are variations from the mean. In a bull markets gold shares will get overbought and might go 2 standard deviations above the mean, and in bear markets will get oversold and might go 2 standard deviations below the mean, but in the long run things "average out" That'a why I like to use my XAU/AU ratio, I don't know what the correct value for either item is, but I have a pretty good historical indication of their relative values. When it went over 130% of fair market value on 1/22/96, gold was $403 and the XAU was 141.42. I had no idea if it was going to go any higher, but one didn't get a lot of XAU shares (403/141.42=2.85) for the price of one ounce of gold, shares appeared relatively overvalued. When it went under 70% of fair market value on 8/28/98, gold was $276.70 and the XAU was 51.41. I had no idea if it was going to go any lower, but one got a lot of XAU shares (276.70/51.41=5.38) for the price of one ounce of gold, shares appeared relatively undervalued A picture is worth a thousand words; goldsheet.simplenet.com P.S. My current historical information goes back to 1984 - 3960 days of data, 15+ years.