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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (5292)	8/24/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: Dr. Id	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Lindy (or anyone else with an opinion!) I have a small position in QCOM (400 shares) bought last April (wish I'd bought ALOT more...). I am in the process of reducing margin loan by lightening positions in INTC, CPQ, AAPL, as well as some other speculative positions that haven't panned out. As I reduce my other issues, I want to start adding to QCOM (I'm also holding onto positions in CSCO, AOL, and NTAP). What do you think about selling puts at slightly lower strike prices (say, Sept 170's or 165's) as a strategy for getting in on dips (and if I don't get in immediately, generating a little income). I know the book says not to time gorillas and to just get in, but my experience is that the techs ALWAYS dip significantly several times a year. As for option experience, I've sold covered calls before but have never sold puts. Thanks for any input, Jeff

To: LindyBill who wrote (5292)	8/24/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>Most of here had Dell, Bruce, and made a bundle on it. I knew last year that the run had to end sometime, and that the boxmakers would get caught in the price slide. When the earnings leveled off in late '98, I watched it like a hawk, and when we got the earnings warning from an analyst just before earnings in Jan of this year, I was out in a "New York Minute!" Uncle Frank was a bit more stubborn! :0) That is why we hold them lightly! Yes, that analyst was Mr. Dan Niles of BancBoston/RS. There was another who made the revenue call with him, but Niles is the 'real' one we all remember. He also trashed Intel back in - I forget exactly - May or June. Intel, a core holding of mine, dropped like a rock from the 60 range to below 50. Thanks again Mr. Niles. Since then, he has dined on crow for Dell and just gave it an upgrade after the lastest earnings were better than expected. I believe he has yet to do so with Intel. How about a little crow on Intel Mr. Niles - especially now that the stock is up over 30 points. I'm glad my Intel shares were not in an account he was handling. Maybe he hasn't read the manual...... If Uncle Frank was 'stubborn' - I'm equally stubborn. In fact, I'm cemented in my Dell shares. I'm still as stubborn and naive about Dell's possibilities as a growth stock in 1999 and beyond as I was in 1995. My Qualcomm shares only have to go up another $3,354 per share to match what my Dell shares did. I certainly don't expect that from Dell and I'm not even counting on it for Qualcomm. Sure, I'd take it, but let's see how it all plays out in the next few years. The manual may say hold Princes and Kings lightly, but when something like the Internet and technology upgrades throughout the world come along so powerfully as we are experiencing now - I don't see any reason to follow strict 'manual rules' to make money. If it was only so easy....... From the 'big picture' outlook of how the stock market works in terms of in favor and out of favor technology stocks, I think those of us who have been investing through so many ups and downs of technology stocks over the past 15 years realize that plenty of people have motives to make money on the way up as well as on the way down. That's where the 'manual' hits a good point in stressing 'avoid the noise'. Hard to do and there was certainly plenty of noise concerning Dell and the PC industry come early February up until now. I was not to keen on sending Uncle Sam a hefty check, even though like you Lindy, I had been watching the Dell, Gateway, Apple, HP, IBM, CPQ, Siemens, Sony and MUEI computer earnings and numbers like a hawk. The shift to the direct model sellers numbers is what kept me faithful and stubborn. It's not completely played out yet, but Mr. Dell is about to appear on CNBC in a few minutes, so I'm interested to hear his continued vision. BB Stubborn on the new King in the PC industry.