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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (58250)	8/24/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Terry, i have looked at the table at cycle pro...it shows it took seven moves to break the bull run in '87 - since the current mania is a lot more intense, i guess it will take at least the same amount of tightening of the fed funds rate and probably a long bond yield of 7 1/2%-8% to do the market in. anything less will continue to be laughed at. the only comparable modern day stock market mania is Japan in the late 80's, and it took 8%+ on the JGB to stop it. if we get anything remotely resembling the blow-off in the Nikkei, a Dow target of 18,000 or so within the next 12 months would not be too far-fetched.