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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (5273)	8/24/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Thanks for the great info/analysis. Actually it could be conservative IMO depending on GET business expansion/profits. Appreciate your input. Rich

To: kolo55 who wrote (5273)	8/24/1999 3:00:00 PM
From: Nevin S.	Respond to of 6317

Thankyou Paul for that excellent analysis. Haven't seen you in these parts for a while and thought maybe some of the more roudy visitors to this thread had chased you off. Again, thanks and welcome back!!

To: kolo55 who wrote (5273)	8/29/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

I was reading a prospectus on recent ECM company mergers last night and especially the valuation opinions by Deutsch Bank and Robbie Stevens for both parties. ( I should be reading a good novel by Graham Greene but alas) Anyway I started thinking about PSR valuations. I remember you once indicated this was one of your valuation yardsticks and in an old flex post was using ,8-1.0 PSR with Mark's projected sales forecasts. Comparing PSRs for the ECMS seems difficult though. PSR= PExProfit margin and the margins of the ECMS differ so much depending on their business model, mix etc so it becomes confusing to me. SCI versus FLEX versus Jbl are examples. But using Patrollers Jaaa~Flex index as a example and assuming they both have revs of 3000 million right now annually and 54 million shares for FLEX and 83-88 million for JBL then a 1 PSR for flex is 55 and a 1 psr for JBL is 34-36 making JBL much higher at todays prices. But on a PE basis JBL(assuming similar earnings fof 1.75 about) would be cheaper or lower. So the margins matter a lot and dont indicate the ROIC which Dunne wrote about and 18acastra posted on. Also the tax rates seem to effect the earnings a lot and don't get consideration much it seems although FLEX in their last prospectus or 10k has several paragraphs warning about future changes but JBL is paying close to statutory rate already. So PE wise JBL is cheaper especially when operating earnings are considered before taxes but PSR wise FLEX is cheaper. So Buying and Selling FLEX-JBL for trading using valuation differences seems hard to me as I wonder about how to measure a quantatative difference. Rich Rich