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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43158)	8/24/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim, it's a very close call i have to admit...seasonally September is a weak month and it would be reasonable to expect some selling as a result of the Fed's new course. my idea of a possible melt-up before we see serious downside is mainly based on the comparison of this mania with past manias. long term bull markets almost always end in a violent blow-off; the fact that the Dow has spent some time now in a trading range coupled with the fact that it and the NDX have already blown past the 0,78 retracement level and COMP and SPX are one good day away from doing likewise alerted me to the possibility of a blow-off being in the cards. note that i say possibility, not certainty. with the market as overvalued as it is, anything is possible - and the quality of the rallies is diminishing as evidenced by NH/NL and the a/d line. we also have non-confirmations en masse, so perhaps my fear is misplaced. we'll see... regards, hb